The bank’s macroeconomists expect the policy rate to peak at 4 percent in June this year.
“The Swedes are highly leveraged. Approximately 60 percent have variable interest rates on their mortgages and a further 15 percent have mortgages that are to be renegotiated within a year, and therefore we expect a weaker development in Sweden compared to other countries. This means that further during the year,” writes Swedbank’s chief economist Mattias Persson in a comment.
Growth is shrinking
Swedbank revises down its growth forecast for 2024 from 0.9 to 0.3 percent. In 2024, unemployment is expected to rise to 8.6 percent, according to the bank.
For 2023, Swedbank expects growth to shrink by 1.1 percent.