This did not have the ambition of Jacques Chirac’s call for 43, but still… On April 10, a column initiated by the deputy for Hauts-de-Seine Philippe Juvin was published in Le Figaro. The missive exposes the haunting dream of part of the right. She calls on the presidential majority and Les Républicains (LR) to conclude “a majority contract” to get out of the crisis and reform France. With, as a result, the appointment of a Prime Minister LR.
Philippe Juvin is a historic supporter of the coalition. He has been circulating his text with a few LR deputies for several days. The harvest is meager. His text finds only three signatories: the deputies Nicolas Forissier and Stéphane Viry as well as the ex-vice president of LR Virginie Calmels. “A wet firecracker, laughs a deputy. When you make a putsch, you have to be careful otherwise it ends in Tulle.” A deputy hostile to any coalition is already having fun with a “competition between the pro-agreements”, mischievously noting the names missing from the podium.
No offer on the table
The calendar was however suitable. The episode of pensions demonstrated the political deadlock in the National Assembly. Large-scale texts have a deadly destiny there, immobility lurks. The government’s failure has woken up advocates of a deal, joined by new followers. Some assume it publicly, like Rachida Dati. Others, on condition of anonymity, confess their questions. All are watching for a presidential move. Didn’t the Head of State call on Monday to build “coalitions and new alliances” during his televised address? Didn’t he promise to “strengthen the control of illegal immigration” and the fight against “social and tax fraud”, themes dear to the right? Gérald Darmanin and Bruno Le Maire provided strong after-sales service for presidential announcements on Tuesday, April 18. The Minister of the Interior wanted a “strong” text on immigration, when his colleague from Bercy pinned the social aid sent to the Maghreb.
Words, nothing more. LR’s ear is flattered, but no offer is on the table. Emmanuel Macron has never taken the initiative to secure the right, despite the mandate given to Elisabeth Borne to enlarge the majority. “The president must evolve. He has not yet taken the measure of his political situation”, regrets Nicolas Forissier. Sweet understatement. On the right, a consensus is emerging: the head of state has no desire to form a coalition, which would amputate his personal power. A matter of psychology. “It’s up to him to act, but he won’t do it, privately deplores Jean-François Copé, historical defender of a government pact. At Macron, we find a mixture of ‘nothing is imposed on me’ and refusing to see people emerge and shine by his side.”He does not want to tie his hands and wants to remain in control of the device, even if it’s a mess”, adds an LR executive.
“We are no longer worth very much on the political market”
This psychological portrait is coupled with a political analysis. The left wing of the majority does not want an alliance, which would sign the death certificate of overcoming divisions. And then, the retreats left their mark. LR president Eric Ciotti was not followed by his troops. The right failed Emmanuel Macron, unable to defend genetic reform at home. Nineteen deputies voted for the motion of censure. Its divisions encourage the executive to be cautious. “We are no longer worth very much on the political market, notes a pro-agreement deputy. Even if a pact were signed, Macron would not be certain of having a majority with us to end his five-year term well.”
To Macron’s silence, responds LR’s wait-and-see attitude. The party leadership camped on a line of independence and rejected any rapprochement. The members do not want it and want to remain in opposition to a dying Macronism. Here is the official version. Politics is a matter of supply and demand: the right is above all expecting an initiative from the Head of State. To reach out first is to weaken in negotiation. “The ball is in the court of the majority, assures an LR leader. We are not going to go to Canossa towards them.”
“Is Macron lucid?”
This “request” is also demanding, as shown by LR’s complaints in terms of immigration. The right is upping the ante on this theme and is setting its very firm conditions to dub the government bill. Revision of the nationality code, right of asylum only at the border, quotas “including for asylum seekers”…
The right is tough on business. What is valid for a text would be valid for a pact of government. Some LR executives thus evoke the idea of a “cohabitation”, with Emmanuel Macron. The party would impose its programmatic agenda on a president reduced to inaugurating schools. The option is hardly realistic, so badly does it suit the personality of the president and the arithmetic: LR deputies are 62 in the Assembly. “I know few coalitions where the small partner becomes the leader. To think otherwise is immature”, laments a “constructive” MP. “The concessions must be reciprocal”, insists Jean-François Copé.
Between LR and the executive, the phoney war never ends. It can last until the end of the “hundred days” mentioned by Emmanuel Macron to relaunch his mandate… or for four years. The Head of State has the cards in hand. Advocates of a coalition want to believe that the author of Revolution, anxious to leave a trace in history, will not resolve to a second frozen mandate. This immobility is the antithesis of the name “En Marche”, a movement founded in 2016 to serve the ambitions of Emmanuel Macron. An LR hierarch wonders: “Is he lucid? He may really feel like he has changed the country.”