(Finance) – The Ministry of Economy published the text of Document of economics and finance (Def), approved by the government and sent to the Chambers. Minister Giorgetti, in the introduction to the Def, wrote that the growth forecasts inserted in the document are “of an extremely prudential nature, being aimed at the elaboration of projections Of balance inspired by caution and reliability”. However, added the minister, it is “entirely realistic to aim for an increase in the growth rate of the GDP and ofoccupation that goes far beyond the provisions of the Document, along a path of innovation and investment in the name of the ecological and digital transition and the development of infrastructure for the transmission of clean energy and sustainable mobility”.
The Def is the backbone of the choices of Political Economics of the executive in the short and medium term, starting with the next manoeuvre. The text explains that the resources to be allocated to the renewal of the contracts will arrive as early as next year Budget Law by a squeeze on current spending. Over the next three years – we read – “resources will be allocated for so-called unchanged policies, such as those relating to contract renewals”. “These – continues the text – will be accompanied by a strengthening of the review of current expenditure which, with savings increasing over time, will contribute to the coverage of such policies”.
The index of hipca inflation (what applies to renewals) is set at 8.7% in 2022, 5.9% this year, 2.8% in 2024, 2.1% in 2025 and 2% in 2026. For the unchanged policies the Def allocates 0.2% of GDP (4 billion) in 2024 from which to draw, however, also for the reduction in taxes.
The Def also provides for “interventions on pension law” among the 21 “linked to the budgetary decision” that the government lists “to complete the 2023-2025 budget”. Some of the measures already being examined by Parliament such as the tax delegation and the one on the reordering of the incentives to businesses or the bill ondifferentiated autonomy. Furthermore, “measures to support employment policies” and “interventions in favor of policies to combat poverty” are envisaged. However, the executive also focuses on the “enhancement of Made in Italy” and on the “protection of national agricultural production”.
Giorgetti in his introduction recalled that “the recent reclassification of the tax credits linked to building bonuses by Istat, in agreement with Eurostat, led to the transition from the cash criterion to the accrual criterion, resulting in a significant worsening of the net debt (deficit) in 2022, which stood at 8, 0 per cent of GDP instead of close to the 5.6 per cent policy target. As a result of this accounting change and the recent changes to the regulation of building bonuses, the trend of the PA deficit will tend to improve in the coming years”. For these reasons, the government plans to review the entire matter of building incentives.
The Def also provides that the risk of a new increase in energy raw materials it could translate into a reduction in GDP of 0.3 points this year and 0.4 points next. The materialization of an increase in energy raw materials, such as petrolium but also gas and electricity, reads the text, “would lead to a reduction in growth rates compared to the trend scenario equal to -0.3 percentage points in 2023 and -0.4 points in 2024”.
In addition to the Document, the text of the was also published on the Ministry’s website Report to Parliament in which authorization to resort to debt is requested, confirming the programmatic objectives already authorized last November. In structural terms, the balance is equal to -4.9% in 2023, -4.1% in 2024, -3.7% in 2025 and -3.2% in 2026.