On the map, Bakhmout is streaked with green and red. Green, for Ukraine. Red, for Russia. The positions of each, the trajectories of attacks and retreats, as well as the combat zones are listed there. To the nearest kilometer. Annotations specify the number of Russians mobilized, “about 29,000 individuals, including 22,000 from Wagner”. A box mentions their objectives: “defeat the air force”, in the South-West or even “cut the lines of communication” in the North. And at the top, right of the image the inscription “TOP SECRET”.
For several days, around fifty documents such as this map of the Battle of Bakhmout dated March 2023 have been circulating on Twitter, Instagram, Telegram or even Discord. How did such detailed descriptions of the forces deployed in the conflict end up online, for all to see? These documents come from an unprecedented leak of American intelligence, revealed by the New York Times, and at the heart of international news ever since.
They attest in particular to the scale of American espionage, which has been particularly active since the beginning of the conflict. From the heart of the Russian command… to the intimacy of the discussions of the Allied governments. An investigation was opened this Sunday by the Pentagon, to “evaluate the impact that the leak of these photographed documents could have on national security and on its allies and partners”. If the authorities have confirmed the veracity of most of these documents, without specifying on a case-by-case basis which were false, the source of the leak has not been officially identified.
At the heart of the Russian command
American espionage would thus have access to Russian strike orders, to the nearest building, before they are carried out. One document in particular mentions an attack plan, scheduled for February 2023, and the list of a dozen military infrastructures and as many bridges, targeted by the Russian Minister of Defense, reports the Washington post. Another would show that the spies also had access to the exchanges of their Russian counterparts, the “GRU”. He would describe Russian propaganda inclinations in Africa, against the United States and France. The Wagner group would also be tapped.
According to a close friend of Ukrainian President Volodimir Zelensky, quoted by CNN, these leaks would have pushed Ukraine to modify its battle plans, while some of these documents mention the weak points of its army. Several of them warn in particular of the wear and tear of the anti-aircraft defenses of kyiv, an element confirmed by the American authorities. According to US intelligence, Ukraine may very soon run out of anti-aircraft missiles.
Information relating to allied countries
Some of these documents would also report spying by the United States on some of its allies, a practice which had already been revealed by WikiLeaks. One page describes a conversation between two senior South Korean national security officials about the concerns of the country’s National Security Council over a request for munitions from the United States. Another said Israel “will likely consider providing lethal aid under increased pressure from the United States or a perceived deterioration” in its relationship with Russia. Whether they are correct remains to be determined.
Many Western leaders have voiced concerns about the leaks, and have asked Washington for clarification. For its part, Russia has denied being behind the publication of these documents. “This tendency to blame Russia for everything is becoming epidemic,” inquired Dmitry Peskov, spokesman for the Kremlin, on Monday. Which then ? A chat channel linked to the Wagner Group posted this message on Telegram on Friday: “We must not rule out the high probability that such a leak of classified information […] either a disinformation operation by Western intelligence services aimed at misleading us”.