(Finance) – The United States has created 236 thousand jobs, in the month of Marchconfirming the solidity of the American market despite the series of rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.
It is however a slowdown compared to the 326,000 employed created the previous month. The unemployment rate it fell from 3.6 to 3.5 percent while wages increased by 0.3% on the previous month.
Recent macroeconomic data in the US – explains Filippo Diodovich, Senior Market Strategist of IG Italia – showed a US “slowdown of the economy”. From the decline in factory orders to the disappointing data on the world of work in March, from the contraction of the manufacturing sector to the sharp slowdown in activity in the services sector.
Today’s jobs data confirms previous numbers (jolts on job vacancies, ADP estimates of new jobs and jobless claims) and shows that the US jobs world is starting to show the first signs of slowing growth. However, the unemployment rate is still very low and job creation is in any case well above 200,000 units. Even the growth of wages showed only a slight slowdown on an annual basis.
The March report on the world of work – Diodovich points out – does not bring enough arguments for the “most dovish” members of the FOMC to stop the process of raising interest rates.
There is still a lot of time left from the next meeting of the FOMC, the Fed’s operating commission, 4 weeks. Upcoming macroeconomic data will be crucial to understand what the US central bank’s next choices will be in terms of monetary policy (the March consumer price index will be published next Tuesday). In addition, US central bankers will continue to closely monitor the performance of regional banks which continue to worry about the stability of the financial system (especially after Western Alliance’s confirmation of a strong outflow of deposits in the first quarter).
We maintain, for the moment – concludes the Senior Market Strategist of IG Italia – “our expectations of a 25-point rate hike basis by the Fed at the FOMC meeting” in early May with a chairman, Jerome Powellwhich will, however, be very dovish signaling a possible pause in the rate-hiking process in June. We believe that “inflationary pressures are still too persistent” at high levels to push the Fed to stop its process of raising the cost of money.
(Photo: Salvatore Cavalli)