Is Vladimir Putin preparing to recognize the independence of the separatist republics of Donetsk and Luhansk? The leaders of the two territories in eastern Ukraine in any case called on him to do so on Monday. “In the event of recognition, Russia would de facto withdraw from the Minsk agreements with all the consequences that will ensue,” warned the head of Ukrainian diplomacy, Dmytro Kouleba. Signed in 2015, these agreements provide for the eventual return of these territories to Ukrainian rule. Unless the Russian president uses another means to achieve his ends… As Moscow has been doing for thirty years.
- 1992: Russian troops in Transnistria
Dario Ingiusto / L’Express
Following the conflict between Moldova and separatist forces in Transnistria supported by Moscow in 1992, Russia sent soldiers to this territory in the heart of Europe. Thirty years later, they are still there. “The maintenance of Russian troops constitutes a means of pressure on Moldova and discourages its attempts at rapprochement with the EU”, underlines Carole Grimaud Potter, founder of the Center for Russia and Eastern Europe Research. And also contributes to putting pressure on Ukraine.
- 2008: war in Georgia
Dario Ingiusto / L’Express
In August 2008, Moscow intervened militarily in Georgia to support the separatist provinces of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, then recognized the independence of the two “Republics” after the ceasefire agreement. “These territories are under the control of Russia,” observes Thorniké Gordadzé, a researcher at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. The goal? “Prevent Georgia from entering NATO, the Alliance cannot integrate members who are the subject of a territorial dispute.”
- 2014: annexation of Crimea
Dario Ingiusto / L’Express
Six years later, Putin turns to Ukraine. Following pro-European demonstrations and the flight of President Viktor Yanukovych, Russian forces are sent to Crimea. The peninsula proclaims its independence, before being annexed by Russia, which also supports pro-Russian separatists in the Donbass. Eight years later, will it absorb this territory? “For Putin, the Ukrainian revolution of 2014 is an illegitimate movement. Seeing a democratic model emerge at its doorstep is intolerable to him, points out Galia Ackerman, historian specializing in the post-Soviet space. The problem is the same today.
- 2021: enhanced cooperation with Belarus
Dario Ingiusto / L’Express
Anxious to avoid such a scenario in Belarus, Putin supports its president, Alexander Lukashenko, when the latter faces a historic protest movement after his disputed re-election in 2020. “Lukashenko had always tried to preserve a certain amount of sovereignty in the face of to Russia, comments Thorniké Gordadze. After the dispute, he had to rely on Putin to save his head.” Since then, the two men have relaunched an old political-economic alliance project. Militarily, the Russians are now “at home”. As proof, the Belarusian president says he is ready to welcome Russian “nuclear weapons”. During an interview, he even rejoiced that Putin plans to appoint him “colonel of the Russian army”…