This is one of the consequences of the return of war to European soil: the French budget for the armies will increase. The military programming law (LPM) 2024-2030, for a total amount of 413 billion euros, against 295 billion for the previous one, is presented this Tuesday, April 4 in the Council of Ministers, before an examination in public session in Parliament five to six weeks later. French military aid to Ukraine will not be included in this sum, the Ministry of the Armed Forces has already warned. Nevertheless, 13 billion in extra-budgetary receipts have been announced to finance aid to the Ukrainians in particular.
According to the first information gleaned by our colleagues from Echoes, this new programming law is part of the extension of the previous LPM, which set the course for 2019-2025 and essentially confirms the major armament programs already launched: modernization of the aircraft carrier, submarines nuclear rocket launchers for the navy, delivery of connected armored vehicles for the army, replacement of tankers and gradual transition to all-Rafale for the air force. A significant effort which is justified by “the very rapid deterioration of the geopolitical context” marked by the war in Ukraine, but also “the appearance of many technological leaps which have a cost”, explains one at the Ministry of the Armed Forces.
Military programming law 2024-2030 in key figures
© / the express
5 billion for the future French aircraft carrier
According to the Minister of the Armed Forces, Sébastien Lecornu, an initial sum of five billion euros will be devoted to the new aircraft carrier in the future LPM. While models of the warship are already circulating, the minister indicated in an interview At Parisian Sunday that the construction of the new French nuclear-powered aircraft carrier will begin between the end of 2025 and the beginning of 2026. “The sea trials should take place in 2036-2037”, he specified, describing “a cathedral of technology and human skills” of 75,000 tonnes.
The army budget for the period 2024-2030 will also include an envelope of five billion euros allocated to the acquisition of drones. “It’s colossal”, he reacted in the columns of the Parisian. And it’s “not so much to catch up as to try to be ahead of the new models for 2030”. Despite a marked increase in resources, not all the anticipated needs will be met in this way. “There is no renunciation in this LPM, there are revisions to the timing, some equipment may not arrive in as many numbers as expected by 2030”, explains the minister’s entourage. The Ministry of the Armed Forces has also recently asked the General Delegation for Armaments (DGA) to think about more sophisticated programs as well as more rustic, less expensive and sometimes non-reusable weapons.
30 billion euros of inflation
If the major programs are preserved by this new LPM, including the future air combat system (Scaf), the Franco-German tank MGCS or even nuclear deterrence and the strengthening of human resources for intelligence, others will be less ambitious provided that. The Scorpion program for the renewal of the Army’s armored component using connected devices, JaguarGriffin, Serval, will, for example, pay the price. The minister’s entourage evokes “a hundred fewer Jaguars” out of the 300 planned and “a few hundred” Griffons and Servals postponed after 2030.
Another downside to this budget, which is up sharply compared to the previous one: inflation. The Minister confirmed this at the end of February last during a hearing in the Senate. The amount of 413 billion euros would be eaten away by more than 7% because of inflation. According to the ministry’s forecasts based on reports from Bercy, inflation would be 30 billion euros out of the 400 billion.
Excluding LPM, an increase of 1.5 billion for 2023?
Sébastien Lecornu also wishes to request an additional expenditure of 1.5 billion euros in 2023, in addition to an annual budget of 43.9 billion. A justified request according to him, which would serve to deal with “operational emergencies”, in particular in terms of drones and the fight against drones, one of the weaknesses of the French military system revealed by Ukraine, but also to cushion the effects of inflation. .
In short, the army budget will increase by 3.1 billion euros in 2024, then by three billion euros per year from 2025 to 2027, before “steps” of 4.3 billion per year from 2028 , i.e. beyond the current five-year term. A “low trajectory” to which “it will possibly be necessary to provide for supplements” depending on the threat, underlines the ministry, which hopes for the adoption of the LPM by Parliament before July 14.
With this bill, France should reach more quickly than expected (2025) the equivalent of 2% of its GDP devoted to the defense budget. France is not the only European country to increase its military spending against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine. At the end of January, Poland announced that it wanted to devote 4% of its GDP to defence, against 2.4% in 2022. The Belgian budget will increase from 4.2 billion euros (0.9% of GDP) to 6 9 billion (1.54%) by 2030. While Italy, which currently devotes 1.41% of its GDP to this sector, has announced that it will exceed the 2% mark .