At the same time that Hungary is ratifying Finland’s NATO application, Sweden is struggling with its own application.
Turkey has made very tough demands to Sweden, related to the extradition of people designated as terrorists by Turkey to Turkey.
Hungary is also causing gray hairs for Sweden’s leadership. Ratification has been postponed numerous times. The country still says that it does not differentiate between Finnish and Swedish applications.
A couple of weeks ago, a Hungarian parliamentary delegation visited Sweden. The delegation pointed out that false information is being spread about Sweden and Hungary is being slandered. However, this would not prevent the NATO application from being accepted.
Last week things changed. Hungary announced that it would postpone Sweden’s case again until the future. Prime minister Ulf Kristersson immediately contacted the Hungarian management to ask what the fuss was about.
No clear answer was received from Hungary. However, the country does not intend to delay Sweden’s accession to NATO, assured the prime minister Viktor Orbán.
– This was a very interesting statement, says the Swedish Foreign Policy Institute researcher interviewed by Gunilla Herolf. He says Hungary’s behavior arouses irritation in Sweden, when “we say one thing and do another”.
– Hungary does not have any problematic issues or demands in relation to Sweden, apart from this slander case, so it is very difficult to do anything about Hungary, he reflects.
The EU’s pressure on the country has emerged in Hungary, which is related to Hungary’s democratic deficit and intentions to weaken the independence of the courts. The EU has frozen more than 13 billion euros of the country’s support money.
According to Herolf, the EU is also trying to pressure Hungary to ratify Sweden’s NATO application. There just aren’t many ways to apply pressure.
– Hungary has proven to be very good at withstanding pressure.
Is Hungary trying to get money?
Herolf thinks that even though the issue has not been discussed publicly, Hungary may use the NATO issue to pressure Sweden to open the EU’s money taps. However, Sweden alone has no way to deal with the issue, Herolf emphasizes.
According to him, it must be remembered that Hungary is very dependent on Russia in energy matters. One reason for Hungary’s capriciousness may be the collection of political points from Russia in the hope of reciprocating favors.
– Last fall, Russia praised Hungary’s “independent policy in the EU”. At the same time, Hungary signed a large gas contract with Russia, Herolf says.
He predicts that Hungary will stop bullying Sweden at the point when Turkey accepts Sweden’s application. However, this can take time.
However, Herolf does not see that Sweden has any more means to appease Turkey. He does not believe that Sweden would start sending dozens of people to be arrested by the Turkish police.
Finland improves Sweden’s security
The delay in Sweden’s NATO membership harms not only Sweden, but also NATO as a whole, he says. Still, according to Herolf, Sweden is in a better security position than a year ago.
– We also thank Finland for this, because it has pulled us along. If Finland joins in, it will also improve Sweden’s security, although it is not an ideal situation.
Herolf does not believe that Sweden has any plan B for the implementation of its NATO membership. Membership remains a goal until it is realized.
The delay is unfortunate, but Herolf has wondered if Sweden could get additional security for the president Sauli Niinistön For Swedish Broadcasting Corporation SVT (you switch to another service) in a suggestive way.
Niinistö said that all the Nordic countries are negotiating a bilateral security agreement with the United States. Niinistö said in an interview that agreements can be more meaningful than NATO membership itself.
Gunilla Herolf does not know exactly what the bilateral security agreements between the countries contain. They would certainly be helpful as long as NATO membership has not yet materialized, he thinks.
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