Despite the Russian assaults repeated tirelessly for months, the Ukrainian flag still flies above Bakhmout. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky even allowed himself a quick visit on Wednesday near this city in eastern Ukraine to support his soldiers engaged on the front. A stopover looking like a snub for the Russian forces who, since August 1, have been struggling to try to conquer it. Over the months, the fierce fighting around this city of 70,000 inhabitants before the conflict made it the bloodiest battle of the war.
Main axis of attack of the forces of Wagner, the mercenaries of Prigojine – recruited en masse in the Russian prisons -, paid for each advance at a high price. Sent wave after wave to advance a few tens of meters, they have suffered, according to Washington, more than 30,000 losses (dead, wounded, captured) in Ukraine since the start of the conflict, including 9,000 killed.
“The city does not have a great value”
“The defense of this city allowed the Ukrainians to undermine the military potential of the Russian forces, points out General (2S) Jérôme Pellistrandi, editor-in-chief of the National Defense Review. This will handicap their ability to conduct new offensive operations in the future.” According to a NATO official quoted by CNN, Russian forces reportedly lost at least five soldiers for every Ukrainian killed defending Bakhmout. A ratio that would even rise to one for seven according to the Ukrainian authorities.
Despite this carnage, Russian forces have gradually tightened their grip around the city in recent weeks. And now hold the east, north and south of the city, limiting the supply routes of the Ukrainian army to a few roads running west. On March 20, the boss of the Wagner group thus claimed to control “about 70%” of the city. “Given the losses, even if Bakhmout ended up falling, it would in any case be a Pyrrhic victory for the Russians, points out General Pellistrandi. Especially since the city is now in ruins.”
Destroyed buildings in the city of Bakhmout, the epicenter of the fighting in eastern Ukraine, on March 6, 2023.
© / afp.com/Anatolii Stepanov
Could its eventual loss shake the forces of kyiv? “It would undoubtedly be a blow to morale since there has been a lot of fighting to defend this area, gauges Michel Goya, former colonel of the navy troops, now a war historian. But the impact should remain limited as long as that there is no accumulation of defeats.” The value of taking Bakhmout is however disputed on the tactical level. “In itself, the city is not of great value, continues Michel Goya. It is above all an essential stage before approaching the area of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk located further north.”
A Ukrainian counter-offensive to come?
These two twin towns – with more than 100,000 inhabitants before the war – constitute the other great Ukrainian bastion in the region. And a major obstacle to the total takeover of Donetsk Oblast, which Putin wants to get his hands on, after having annexed it last October, in addition to three other Ukrainian provinces. An objective all the more uncertain at this stage as the Ukrainian army left a possible counter-offensive in Bakhmout on Thursday.
Russian troops are “losing considerable strength and becoming exhausted,” Ukrainian Ground Forces Commander Oleksandre Syrsky said on Telegram. “Very soon we will take advantage of this opportunity, as we did in the past near Kyiv, Kharkiv, Balaklya and Kupyansk.” In early March, Volodymyr Zelensky announced the dispatch of reinforcements to the area, reaffirming “that no part of Ukraine can be abandoned”.
What to stop the progress of the Russians? “Fighting continues around the city center and Ukrainian defenses remain threatened by envelopment from the north and south, British intelligence said in a statement. recent note. However, there is a realistic possibility that the Russian assault on the city will lose the limited momentum it had gained, in part because some Russian units have been reassigned to other sectors.” The fight for Bakhmout is not not finished yet.