One of the biggest secrets of war-torn Ukraine is its ability to train and deploy new military forces, says a visiting researcher at the Aleksanteri Institute in an interview with . Ilmari Käihkö.
Ukraine has managed quite well to keep its real losses in men a secret. However, it is obvious that the majority of the trained and experienced soldiers who went to the front at the beginning of the war have already fallen or been wounded. At this stage, Ukraine is increasingly fighting with reserve forces, Käihkö states.
In order for Ukraine to get a tolerable outcome from the war, it must be able to take back at least part of the territory occupied by Russia. The leadership of Ukraine has also talked about the attack starting in the spring.
Kaihkö has no information on what kind of reserve Ukraine has managed to accumulate, but according to him, it is pointless to dream of an attack if the reserve does not exist.
– The assumption is that there are reserves, because this attack, which the Ukrainians also promised last weekend, requires reserves. If they are not there, the chances of success of the attack will decrease considerably, analyzes Käihkö.
Ukraine is receiving a significant amount of material aid during the spring. Gathering and training new manpower is essential.
Käihkö wonders to what extent Russia’s large and months-long attack in Bahmut binds Ukrainian forces. Will Ukraine be able to rotate the troops on the front line and occasionally pull tired men to rest and train?
One of Russia’s goals in Bahmut is probably to wear down and tire the Ukrainian army, so that it is unable to rest its troops. At the same time, the Ukrainians are using ammunition and consuming war material. Käihkö reminds us that similar battles of consumption are taking place elsewhere along the front line.
Only reserve for one attack
Ilmari Käihkö believes that Ukraine will be able to launch an attack during the spring. However, it is unlikely to be the same quick victory that Ukraine achieved in the fall in Kharkiv and Kherson.
In Kharkov, the Russians simply did not have enough troops to defend themselves, and in Kherson they were on the wrong side of the river, which made it difficult to supply troops.
Now the situation is different, because Russia has gained more manpower through business proposals. In addition, Russia has prepared for an attack by Ukraine and still has material superiority, especially in artillery, says Käihkö.
He anticipates that Ukraine may have to launch several attacks to test the strength of the Russian front before a breakthrough is achieved. All in all, moving the front may take longer than before and be expensive for Ukraine, he warns.
Worst option
Ilmari Käihkö strongly criticizes the arms aid given to Ukraine and generally the West’s reaction to the war started by Russia.
According to him, help has been given retrospectively, i.e. only after the need for it has been realized. It has taken months for aid to arrive since the decision on aid deliveries was made.
The most important help for Ukraine right now would be artillery ammunition, of which there is a crying shortage. Käihkö reminds that already last spring it could be stated that the war will last a long time. Still, no decisions have been made about sufficient grenade production.
He proposes that Ukraine should be proactively supported.
– It would also make it a lot easier for Ukraine if they knew they could take bigger risks.
According to Käihkö, the worst option would be that Ukraine’s attack would fail and its forces would be exhausted.
– After all, it is also theoretically possible that Ukraine’s attack will go nowhere. And what after that? If all the chips have been used, Ukraine is in a pretty difficult situation. And then [Venäjän presidentti Vladimir] Putin would be right, so time is on Russia’s side. […] This is the horror scenario.
Quick wins?
According to Käihkö’s assessment, the key to Ukraine’s success is a business war in which progress is achieved as quickly as possible while keeping one’s own losses to a minimum.
This requires not only good cooperation of the troops, but also suitable equipment. Heavy battle tanks, such as the Leopards, are important, but not enough on their own, warns Käihkö.
According to him, Ukraine should get more armored personnel carriers. The danger is that the attacking forces will even have to use private cars, as at the beginning of the war. This increases the risk of losses, says Käihkö.
Having trained personnel is also essential. Käihkö describes the training of Ukrainian troops in Western countries as “anemic”.
Despite everything, he says that he is “cautiously hopeful” that Ukraine will be able to advance in its spring offensive.
– But will it be enough for the war to end this year, time will tell.
On March 13, ‘s Uutispodcast discussed why Russia and Ukraine are sacrificing their troops in Bahmut.