Can Marine Le Pen be the only one who can take advantage of the crisis born of the battle for pensions? Did LFI’s “bordélisation” strategy serve Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s party? Are the unions, which are regaining strength, working in the service of the political left? Specialist of the great moments of the left – like the worst – and author of Should we despair of the left? (Textual)the political scientist Rémi Lefebvre analyzes what the social movement against the pension reform can give rise to in politics.
L’Express: The unions have succeeded in bringing together, on several occasions since January, more than a million people in the street. However, is this a good sign for the political left?
Remi Lefebvre: It is true that the mobilization is as spectacular as it is historic. What strikes me above all is its peaceful dimension. This is a very strong break with what we have seen in recent years during the often violent demonstrations since the labor law. There, the union force is coordinated and, in fact, powerful. It mobilized leftist public opinion. It is not the political parties that have contributed to this. They have followed in the footsteps of the unions. But there is a breeding ground for them. The society which is mobilizing against the pension reform can become a fulcrum for the left in the months to come.
We often remember the great demonstrations of 1995. They had been one of the starting points leading to the victory of the left led by Lionel Jospin in 1997.
It is tempting to draw this parallel, but that would be a mistake. Society has changed so much since that time: the National Front has continued to progress, the working world is no longer the same and it votes less on the left, public services have been greatly weakened… Unlike in 1995, the renewable strikes that we have been observing for a few days are not yet performative. The unions’ ability to mobilize is real, but the rest of the strike is intrinsically linked to the very tense context of purchasing power and inflation. The paradox of 2023 is also to have very strong mobilizations in the street and in public opinion but with a weaker capacity for obstruction than that of the yellow vests in 2019. We have the impression of a movement expressive, in the street and in opinion polls, but who doesn’t yet dare.
That’s to say ?
We have never observed, in opinion polls, such proportions of French people in favor of blocking. And at the same time, many believe that the law will pass. It is a contradiction in the individuals themselves who have a feeling of defiance, even anger, and do not yet manage to convert it into a capacity for action. Public opinion appears powerless. She is nevertheless favorable to the general idea that she has of the blockage, but when and if the blockage does take place, over long weeks, will she accept it?
And at the same time, in the National Assembly, the strategy of absolute conflict, not to say “bordélisation”, did not please public opinion.
It is necessary to dissociate the blockage from the institutional attitude of the left, and in particular of La France insoumise in the National Assembly. It should be remembered that the political strategy of extremism, of institutional blockage, is much discussed within the ranks of Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s movement. And besides, the most favorable to this tribunite strategy, populist even, are especially the newcomers to LFI, the young guard close to the leader. Another good part of the rebellious group, I am thinking in particular of François Ruffin, is rather in favor of a strategy of respectability, listening and respect for the autonomy of the unions.
“People are repoliticizing themselves by opposing pension reform.”
What Jean-Luc Mélenchon can’t stand is that we talk as much about Laurent Berger and Philippe Martinez as about him, if not more. He is no longer the only one in the wake of left-wing opinion. But the impact of LFI’s attitude in the National Assembly on public opinion should not be overestimated either. It does not necessarily pass the walls of the Bourbon Palace very much. The debates on whether or not to vote for Article 7 have been cryptic and technical. I also notice that in the polls LFI does not suffer from an attitude deemed too violent and disrespectful in the National Assembly.
Why was there no political translation of this social movement? Neither LFI, nor the PS, nor the communists and ecologists benefit from it…
It is too early to measure the political dividends. Crystallization takes time. This movement appears more trade union than political. The decantation, if it is done, is not for tomorrow. For the moment, there is opposition to the reform, that does not mean that there is support for a political alternative. The debate did not focus on the proposals of the left. Moreover, it suited him well since not everyone agrees on retirement at age 60 defended by LFI, starting with the PS. The articulation between social movements and elections is a complicated movement. The Popular Front, first there was a vote and then strikes. May 1968 was not good for the left, and even very bad. If 1995 worked, the story ended badly in April 2002. More recently, the yellow vests have failed to revive the left, quite the contrary, and have not at all prevented the re-election of Emmanuel Macron. Jean-Luc Mélenchon tried to get them back, but it never worked.
What has already crystallized, politically, in this union moment?
We are already observing that people are repoliticizing themselves by opposing the pension reform, young people in particular. The debate has widened beyond pensions to the question of work in society: the meaning of work, bad work, the alienation it produces. This is something to be credited to the left in the cultural battle. A potential fulcrum when it has great difficulty in influencing the political agenda. Otherwise, I fear that the moment will benefit others…
Can Marine Le Pen and the far right really reap the grapes of wrath?
The streak can give rise to a huge sense of political powerlessness. And political impotence is not good for the left. It is a fuse of the extreme right. If the law passes – the most likely hypothesis today – then the left will have gesticulated a lot but for what result? If at the end of the road there is one more political defeat, that risks pushing more voters from the working classes, supposedly won over to the left, into the arms of the National Rally, which has not gotten much involved in the debates or really worked the subject.