There are great orals that are worth more than others. From July to October 2022, the three Chiefs of Defense Staff are heard behind closed doors by the Defense Committee of the National Assembly. They plead their case in view of the future military programming law (LPM) 2024-2030. A hushed battle… worth several billion euros. The Palais-Bourbon jury has a preference. During his visit, Admiral Pierre Vandier does not hesitate to list a long list of future challenges at sea: the rise of piracy and fishing resources, Turkey’s rearmament, Chinese ambitions in the Arctic… The picture is grim. and the current means of the navy, he explains, insufficient. “The times ahead of us are going to be hard, […] It is therefore time to fight like the devils”, he concludes. With his steely blue gaze and his high verb, the officer makes a strong impression. Much more, it is said, than his two counterparts, General Stéphane Mille, Chief of Staff of the Air and Space Force, and General Pierre Schill, head of the Army.”If you watch this hearing, Admiral Vandier is completely out of place in comparison of other chiefs of staff, slips an executive of a major company in the armament sector. He knew how to make the threat tangible.
Did the Elysee get wind of the Admiral’s memorable performance? Seven months later, the imposing budget of the LPM, which will be presented to the Council of Ministers at the end of March, was unveiled – 413 billion euros over seven years. And the navy comes out a winner. Certainly, the number of combat frigates will stagnate – closer to 15 than 18, according to the latest arbitrations, contrary to the wishes of the sailors. But the capacity to project overseas will be reinforced, with in particular an investment in surveillance frigates. This will include, among other missions, to protect the exclusive economic zones of France, frequently plundered by foreign fishermen, as in Polynesia or New Caledonia. “It was the idea of France as a world maritime power that won out,” analyzes MP Jean-Louis Thiériot (Les Républicains), rapporteur for a fact-finding mission on surface-to-air defense in France and in Europe. A choice that would not be totally foreign to the identity of Emmanuel Macron’s main military adviser, Admiral Jean-Philippe Rolland, special chief of staff. “Admiral Rolland sent messages,” a parliamentarian believes.
In July then September 2022, two drafts prepared by the Chief of the Defense Staff, General Thierry Burkhard, from the Army, were rejected by Emmanuel Macron. They were more favorable to earthlings. “Did the navy really win? Basically, it was above all the army that lost,” said Léo Péria-Peigné, researcher at Ifri. Despite what the war in Ukraine might have suggested, which is testing the troops and equipment of the land armies enormously, the biffins did not obtain preferential treatment. No increase in staff is planned, nor is there a major ammunition order. “Be careful not to order ammunition in a countercyclical way, by making a mistake. Knowing that pyrotechnic ammunition expires after ten years”, warns a source at the top of the State, while the Elysée assumes the overall strategy: “The balances of the LPM will be consistent with our needs, with the threats and with the alliances of France”. Clearly, it is useless to bet everything on an upcoming conflict in Western Europe when Russia does not seem able to attack NATO and American protection seems solid.
“Some soldiers are disconnected”
Colonel Michel Goya, consultant for BFMTV, does not budge. He affirms what many think within the active Army: “The budget is not sufficient, we are not preparing to wage a major war”, he insists, convinced that “to less than 3% of GDP”, the French army will not be able to modernize. This would correspond to an annual increase of 10 billion euros compared to Emmanuel Macron’s announcements. The claim makes a part of the executive sigh. “Some soldiers are disconnected, they do not realize that there are problems of purchasing power, a pension reform. It cannot be open bar for the army,” stings a government adviser.
Despite the nature of the fighting in Ukraine, carried out mainly with “old” equipment, with the notable exception of drones, the executive is betting above all on technologies of the future. Cyber means will be considerably reinforced, as will research on quantum computing or investments in the protection of satellites. Each time, the army wants to give itself the means not only to defend itself, but also to “attack”, if necessary, and to detect the most subtle threats. Because these ever more sophisticated technologies are often put to use in increasingly complex strategies, destined to lull opponents’ mistrust. “We are carrying out and we will continue to carry out real work on hybridity”, says one in the entourage of the Minister of the Armed Forces. Objective, to prevent countries such as Russia from wielding these so-called “hybrid” strategies, which consist of a combination of classic military initiatives and more underhand influence operations, such as disinformation.
“These choices will inevitably fuel criticism of a” bonsai army “, “capable of doing everything but without real continuity”, points out Léo Péria-Peigné, “which will end up weakening us”. “On the contrary!” , disputes Thomas Gassilloud, president (Renaissance) of the Defense Committee of the National Assembly: “Our complete army model allows us to rise to power more quickly. This assertion will be realized only if the deliveries of equipment arrive more quickly than before, estimates the Ministry of the Armed Forces. “We want to put a little pressure on the industrialists because we believe that they too must integrate a state of mind of economy of war”, slips a source from the The main companies in the sector have so far explained to the government that they are waiting for “the report annexed” to the bill to start production of the equipment.
Investment fund endowed with 100 billion
“We are in a positive dynamic, but if we want to increase in power, we need orders, opposes Jean-Marie Dumon, defense and security delegate of the Grouping of construction industries and naval activities. We cannot say that we are in a war economy and not budget for it!” Companies reluctant to invest in the field of defense will soon be able to count on an additional partner: at the beginning of February, the investment company Weinberg Capital Partners announced the creation of an investment fund for SMEs and ETIs in the sector defence, in accordance with Minister Sébastien Lecornu’s wishes. Amount of the endowment: 100 million euros.