In 2013, who could have imagined Daesh, the invasion of Ukraine, the assault on the Capitol? To deal with even the most surprising threats, the Ministry of the Armed Forces has asked the Chiefs of Staff, within the framework of the next military programming law, to detail the dangers hanging over our country. Clearly, to propose credible scenarios justifying the use of force. Independently, L’Express wanted to develop its own “black scenarios” in order to question the preparation, the possible flaws in the French defense, and thus fuel the necessary public debate on these questions at 60 billion euros per year. .
About forty experts – researchers, diplomats, generals, former executives of the DGSE – were asked to deliver their analyzes of the main threats that await France by 2030. Their framework was developed from a geopolitical tension real, to which we have integrated, on the suggestions of our great witnesses, Murphy’s law, himself an American soldier: “Anything that is likely to go wrong will go wrong.” Russia, China, cyber, jihadism… The majority of these hypotheses overlap with those on which the armies are working. These scenarios do not constitute forecasts. The military, considering the worst on principle, are the first to know: it is never certain. Especially if you prepare for it.
Scenario 1: 2026, Russian tanks enter Estonia and Lithuania: “The area is a weak point for NATO”
Scenario 2: 2028: Madagascar takes over the Scattered Islands from France, China pulls the strings
Scenario 3: 2026: four Chinese hypersonic missiles sink the aircraft carrier Charles-de-Gaulle
Scenario 4: 2024, Mali falls into the hands of jihadists: “A new Daesh could emerge”
Scenario 5: 2027: a major cyberattack plunges Paris into darkness for seven hours
Scenario 6: Naval Air War in the Aegean Sea
February 2028. Recep Tayyip Erdogan ends his third term as President of the Turkish Republic with a surge of nationalist fever. In the early morning of February 17, thanks to mild weather conditions in the Aegean Sea, the amphibious assault ship TCG Anadolu landed a battalion of special forces on the Imia Islands, two four-hectare confetti in Greek territory, but claimed by the Turkey.
Under the protection of two frigates and a Turkish attack submarine, about fifty Greek guards are arrested, the Turkish flag is hoisted at the highest point of each of the islands. The maneuver is a stutter of history: in 1996, a Greek flag was planted on one of them. In response, two journalists from a Turkish nationalist daily removed it and replaced it with the Turkish flag. This “war of flags” had almost degenerated into a clash of armed forces. In 2018, two Greek and Turkish patrol boats collided off the two islets.
But this time, it is not just a naval incident: blood is shed. Five Greek patrol boats are shot down, as well as ten fighter planes. The human toll is 28 dead on the Greek side. In a televised address, the Turkish president claims the operation and affirms that “Turkey has taken back what belongs to it”. Annexed by Ankara, these tiny uninhabited islets would allow it to expand its area of maritime sovereignty by at least 250 square kilometers. “It’s a realistic scenario because Turkey is marked by a very rooted resentment towards Greece. Such a conflict would not be a party for France”, considers the strategist Michael Shurkin, ex-analyst of the CIA.
Air and naval warfare in the Aegean Sea
© / Map legends
A “Falklands War-style” scenario
Greece immediately invokes Article 5 of NATO, but Turkey’s participation in the organization blocks everything. The Alliance is considerably destabilized by this. “The United States would not intervene. France should take its responsibilities,” said Thibault Fouillet, research fellow at the FRS. Article 42.7 of the Treaty of Lisbon provides for the assistance of the Member States of the European Union in the event of an attack by one of theirs. But few European countries are in a hurry to respond to Greek demand. Signatory to a bilateral defense agreement with Athens since September 2021, Paris, on the other hand, is on the front line.
While the naval air battles continued off the Aegean Sea, causing 40 additional deaths on the Greek side and 14 on the Turkish side, France accelerated on February 20. The French president declares that the French army will conduct an assistance operation for Greece in coalition with several states, in particular Germany, the United Kingdom and Italy. But it is France that bears the main weight of the intervention. On February 21, two frigates, two French nuclear attack submarines, a Mistral helicopter carrier, a tanker aircraft and a C130 Gabriel – a surveillance aircraft – approach the Imia Islands. The 3rd Marine Infantry Regiment of Vannes is ready to land in an amphibious operation. “Each helicopter carrier can carry about 800 men, points out Guillaume Lasconjarias. If you have more than 800 Turks in front, it becomes very complicated. Because in a defensive position, the balance of power is always favorable to whoever is attacked”. In the sky, seven of our Rafales contest Turkish supremacy. “It would be a high-intensity naval air conflict, because the Turkish fleet is gaining strength. There would be losses, for sure. Would we be able to retake the islands? It is always difficult to reconquer a territory”, wonders General Francois Chauvancy. The French army takes the lead, but 80 soldiers are killed in the first three days of combat. “It would be a Falklands war-style scenario. We would suffer because the Turkish army is consistent,” said Colonel Michel Goya.
Once the sky cleared, the French naval troops returned to land where heavy fighting broke out against the Turkish troops. “It would be complicated, but we must not forget that the Turkish army is no longer what it was in 2016. Officers are now appointed by allegiance more than by competence”, retorts General Yakovleff. On February 27, the Turkish commander in charge of the operation presented his surrender. In ten days, 120 French, 130 Greeks and 250 Turks were killed. Recep Tayyip Erdogan presents his resignation, his vice-president Fuat Oktay succeeds him. He immediately affirms his desire to get closer to Russia.