Amid senior brass and other politicians gathered just outside Red Square for Putin’s big speech on February 21 – three days before the first anniversary of his invasion of Ukraine – a key player in the conflict was missing. the call. Shining by his absence, the boss of the Wagner private militia, Yevgeny Prigozhin, was allegedly too “busy” at the front that day. In the course of his long eulogy of the Russian army pronounced for the occasion, the head of the Kremlin did not even bother to mention it. A scene which, beyond its false air of tragicomedy, illustrates the very real zone of turbulence in which the former “cook of Putin” finds himself today, who became a warlord thanks to the conflict in Ukraine. .
Tensions between the billionaire and the Russian general staff have reached rare heights in recent weeks. “There is a frontal opposition, which is nothing less than an attempt to destroy Wagner, he accused, in a violent charge on Telegram, on February 21. This can be likened to a betrayal of the homeland, as Wagner fights for Bakhmout, suffering hundreds of casualties every day.” In question, according to him: the refusal of the Russian high command to provide him with ammunition. In an audio recording broadcast the day before, the Wagner founder said he had to “apologize and obey” in order to obtain them, blaming the shortage on those who “have breakfast, lunch and dinner on gold plates .” His precious ammunition, he finally got them two days later.
“The general staff has not forgiven him for his hubris”
“In a few months, Prigojine went from being a man in the shadows to that of a very prominent public figure, slips Galia Ackerman, historian specializing in the Russian world. But the general staff did not forgive him for his hubris. ” Over the months, the businessman has made him his favorite target, multiplying the trials for incompetence of the Minister of Defense, Sergei Shoigu, and the Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces, Valeri Guerassimov. , accused of being directly responsible for the fiasco of the first phase of the war. The opportunity for the businessman to pose as an alternative to a regular army with outdated methods, which he considers “bureaucratic” and “corrupt”. As if to better celebrate, by contrast, its own merits. Thus of the Battle of Soledar, on January 6, when he takes care to specify that his units, “exclusively”, have “taken control of the territory”.
After years of frolicking in the scullery of Russian power, Evgueni Prigojine suddenly came into the limelight in September, to claim pell-mell the paternity of the Wagner group and its victories on the battlefield. Period during which he appeared on video, recruiting detainees in Russian prisons. The contract: a 6-month service in Ukraine in exchange for a pardon from the State… for the fighters who survive. According to the human rights NGO Gulagu.net, nearly 30,000 men were recruited in this way. Two months later, Prigozhin opened his first headquarters in St. Petersburg, his native city, in a brand new building of 45,000 m2, all of glass and steel.
A weakened image
“Some have started to lend him political ambitions, notes Carole Grimaud, founder of the Center for Russia and Eastern Europe Research. We have seen him rally an entire ultra-nationalist section of the population to him. To the point of ending up burning their wings. “Prigojine rose too quickly and too high, abounds Galia Ackerman. It did not please Putin, nor the staff, who decided to put him in his place.” According to Russian independent media Verstka, the country’s state media have reportedly been ordered not to relay his remarks on “non-neutral subjects”. “A media campaign of denigration” would also have been prepared against him, if necessary, according to a source in the newspaper, close to the Ministry of Defence.
Would the possible fall of Bakhmout in the days or weeks to come allow him to restore his image? “It is not excluded, but this victory which is slow in coming has weakened his image, judge Carole Grimaud. Just like the completely questionable methods he used.” After months of fierce fighting, his efforts to take the city have undermined his reserves of men, sent tirelessly, wave after wave, to advance a few tens of meters. “We now estimate that Wagner suffered over 30,000 casualties [morts, blessés, capturés, NDLR]including about 9,000 killed in action,” White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said earlier this month. Half of the deaths have been recorded since mid-December.
Problem, Wagner would have, according to his words, put an end to recruitment in prisons in mid-February. And the recent changes at the top of the Russian army have weakened its position. By deciding to appoint at the head of the Russian offensive in Ukraine one of its main rivals, the Chief of the General Staff Valeri Guerassimov, the Kremlin could have taken the opportunity, according to certain experts, to remind order. “Wagner’s forces remain too useful, especially in Africa, for Putin to oust him immediately, believes Galia Ackerman. Initially, he will rather seek to channel him.” A first warning before hardening the tone?