In politically divided Moldova, Russian aggression is feared. However, experts see a potential fake operation as very difficult to carry out.
Concerns about the threat of a coup organized by Russia have risen in Ukraine’s neighboring country Moldova in recent weeks.
The threat was raised by a pro-Western president Maia Sandu, according to which Russia aims to stop Moldova’s rapprochement with the EU. In addition, according to him, Russia is trying to use Moldova in an attack against Ukraine.
At the center of the situation is the Transnistria region, located between Moldova and Ukraine, which has announced that it wants to join Russia. There are about 1,500 Russian soldiers in the area, whom Russia calls peacekeepers.
The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed at the end of the week that Ukraine was planning some kind of fake operation in the region of Transnistria. The claim has been interpreted to mean that Russia itself might take similar actions.
correspondent visiting Moldova Suvi Turtiainen according to the Transnistrian border zone, Russian soldiers can be seen, who are part of a peacekeeping operation approved by Moldova as well. However, there are also other Russian troops in the area. Moldova fears that Russia could use them to create some kind of escalation.
According to Turtiainen, there has been a fear of Russian aggression in Moldova practically since the attack on Ukraine began. The capital Chișinău has seen pro-Russian demonstrations in recent days.
– According to local sources, it is clear as day that these are paid demonstrators. Someone pays them and brings them here on buses to demonstrate against the pro-Western Moldovan government.
Moldova’s weak economic situation fuels uncertainty
The director of the Aleksanteri Institute who visited in the morning Markku Kangaspuro and an expert in the Eurasia regional project of the conflict resolution organization CMI Anna Sand see a lot of question marks in possible Russian actions.
According to Kangaspuro, Russia’s fake operation in Transnistria seems difficult to implement at the moment. The distance from the front lines of Ukraine to Moldova is relatively long, and the 1,500 Russian soldiers on the ground will not make a very big impact yet.
Anna Sand emphasizes that a distinction must be made between official sources and rumours.
– You have to be very careful with claims and rumors, because they are very often instrumentalized in situations like this as part of hybrid warfare.
Moldova is dependent on Russian gas, and during the war in Ukraine, prices for consumers have risen up to sixfold. According to Markku Kangaspuro, the dissatisfaction arising from social principles is very high, which the pro-Russian opposition has severely exploited.