One year after the start of the war in Ukraine, is the end of the fighting conceivable? Volodymyr Zelensky has laid down his conditions and Vladimir Putin defends his objectives. Can peace happen?
They are seated side by side, pen in hand, with the same document placed on the table in front of them. Both come forward and sign. This historical image of a Volodymyr Zelensky and a Vladimir Putin meeting to sign a peace treaty between Ukraine and Russia has been awaited for a year. But it will not be immortalized anytime soon by photographers. A year after the start of the war between Russia and Ukraine, the hypothesis of a close end to the fighting is illusory. The Ukrainian president does not want to lower the flag and his Russian counterpart does not intend to backtrack.
Everyone wants to go after their convictions. However, discussions for a cessation of fighting could be initiated: Ukraine has set its conditions for an end to hostilities, supported by France, and China wants to play the role of intermediary to try to resonate with a Russia reaffirmed military objectives. So, what outcome is possible?
What does Ukraine propose to end the war?
The peace plan desired by Ukraine has been known for several months. It was presented by Volodymyr Zelensky on the sidelines of a G20 region in Bali on November 15, 2022, as “a set of solutions that can be implemented to truly secure peace.” This is made up of ten points, dictated by the Ukrainian president and which concern various areas, from borders to nuclear security, including the environment:
- Radiological and nuclear security with the restoration of security around the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant;
- Protection of Ukrainian grain exports
- Price restrictions on Russian energy resources and restoration of the Ukrainian electricity grid
- Release of prisoners and deportees
- Restoration of territorial integrity
- Withdrawal of the Russian army and end of the fighting
- Creation of a war crimes tribunal
- Environmental Protection
- Guarantees to avoid an escalation of the conflict
- Sign the end of the war
Of these ten points, one is crucial in the eyes of Ukraine, beyond the restoration of borders: to bring the Russians before a tribunal for war crimes. During the presentation of this plan, Volodymyr Zelensky said that “Ukraine has always been a leader in peacekeeping efforts, and the world has seen it”, putting Vladimir Putin in front of his responsibilities: ” And if Russia says it supposedly wants to end this war, let it prove it with action.”
Diehard Russia
For its part, Russia has never mentioned a real peace plan. In the eyes of the Russian president, the war will end when he achieves his goals. The head of the Kremlin reiterated this during his address to the nation on Tuesday, February 21, 2023. “A year ago, to ensure the security of our country, to eliminate the threats from an existing neo-Nazi regime in Ukraine, it has been decided to carry out a special military operation. And we are going to settle, step by step, carefully and methodically, the objectives that arise in front of us” declared Vladimir Putin, even adding: “It is them (the Westerners, editor’s note ) that started the war, and we did our best to end it.”
A “political settlement” proposed by China
Faced with the current impossibility for Ukrainian and Russian leaders to meet around the same table, countries are trying to act as intermediaries, like China. Wednesday, February 22, the head of Chinese diplomacy presented to the Kremlin a “political settlement” of the conflict. What’s in it? Mystery. The content should be unveiled in the coming days. However, at the end of the exchanges, the Russian Foreign Minister indicated that “the Chinese partners shared with us their thoughts on the root causes of the Ukrainian crisis, as well as on their approaches to its political settlement.” “There was no question of a separate (peace, editor’s note) plan”, he however clarified.
And France?
Very involved since the start of the war with regular exchanges with Volodymyr Zelensky, Emmanuel Macron has not proposed a full peace plan. However, the Head of State affirmed, on February 19, that he would “support” the peace plan proposed by Ukraine “on the international scene, during the next diplomatic events.” In an interview with the Journal du Dimanche, Figaro and to France Inter, published that same day, the President of the Republic indicated that he wanted “the defeat of Russia in Ukraine”, while conceding that “neither of the two can win entirely.” In his eyes, “what is needed today is for Ukraine to lead a military offensive that disrupts the Russian front in order to trigger a return to negotiations.”