With the anniversary of Russia’s war of aggression approaching, international attention has also focused on another focal point in Europe, Moldova.
Throughout the year, the war in Ukraine has been reflected in the growth of Russia’s influence and turmoil in Moldovan politics.
Moldova featured prominently at the Munich Security Conference over the weekend. President of the United States Joe Biden on the other hand, said on Wednesday during his visit to Poland that Moldova is among the countries that now have to defend their democracy.
Moldova is a small state of 2.6 million inhabitants located on the western side of Ukraine, a former Soviet republic that became an EU candidate country last summer at the same time as Ukraine.
President of Moldova: “Russia was preparing a violent attack”
Last week, political tension in Moldova escalated with the prime minister Natalia Gavrilita get rid of President of Moldova Maia Sandu said a couple of days later that the Moldovan intelligence service revealed that Russia was even planning a coup in the country.
– The plan included that people with military training dressed as civilians would have attacked government buildings and taken hostages, Sandu said.
According to Sandu, Russia’s purpose is to stop Moldova’s rapprochement with the EU. In addition, according to him, Russia is trying to use Moldova in an attack against Ukraine.
Sandu hopes for more support from the West and has, among other things, invited US President Joe Biden to visit Moldova.
Investigator Rihor Nizhnikau The foreign policy institute says that Russia’s passions in Moldova are clear.
– Moldova belongs to the territory of the former Soviet Union. This is why Russia is interested in it, says Nizhnikau.
Russia has denied the hijacking project.
Nizhnikau says that right now there is not enough evidence of a hijacking project. He considers a direct Russian military attack on Moldova unlikely, but says that the situation can change at any time.
– Moscow does have the means to implement a change of power in Moldova, in that sense Sandu can claim that every day and it is true. At the moment, however, Moscow seems to rely on political and economic pressure, he estimates.
The Russian military leadership may also have desires to use Moldova as some kind of compensation for the losses suffered in Ukraine.
– People close to Putin may think that something can be achieved in Moldova, says Nizhnikau.
Installing a pro-Russian government in Moldova would mean that Ukraine would be largely geographically isolated – Belarus, Moldova and Russia itself would be next to it.
Russia’s message sinks in on poor Moldovans
The last few weeks’ resignation of the Moldovan government was preceded by months of protests against the country’s pro-Western government.
People have been on the streets because the standard of living has literally collapsed, says Nizhnikau. Before the war, Moldova was already one of the poorest countries in Europe.
The economic difficulties are partly the result of the war in Ukraine and partly the direct pressure of Russia on Moldova. Among other things, Russia has exerted pressure by cutting off energy transport.
– You can say that Moldovans just want an ordinary life. They want prices to drop and everyday life to run smoothly. They don’t really care what the foreign policy consequences of this goal are, Nizhnikau describes.
Russia has been able to attack this attitude by claiming that the economic difficulties are the fault of Moldova’s own government.
Russia has actively supported, among others, the pro-Russian Ilan Shor party, whose message is echoed by many of the demonstrators who have taken to the streets recently.
– Russia says that if you are friends of Russia, energy prices will drop and the economy will start to spin again.
According to the researcher, Russia’s message sinks in to many Moldovans also because there are many people in the country who want both to become a member of the European Union and to restore relations with Russia.
The fateful connection to Ukraine has now been highlighted
After the resignation of the government, a new government was appointed in Moldova and someone considered to be an expert in security policy became the prime minister Dorin Recean.
According to Nizhnikau, the Moldovan leadership has clearly seen how Russia’s influence has grown, and with the change of government, especially President Sandu is trying to ensure the continuation of Moldova’s western orientation.
– The new government’s agenda is increasingly security-related. They want to emphasize Russia’s threat both to Moldovans themselves and to the West. Without Western support, the Moldovan government could collapse, says Nizhnikau.
According to him, the change in tactics can also be seen in the fact that the Moldovan leadership talks more about the similarities and destiny connection with Ukraine than before, hoping for both more attention and financial support.
According to Nizhnikau, Western support for Moldova is the best way to help Moldova fight against Russian influence. Moldova should be helped to strengthen the state and economy.
– The EU membership project should be promoted, he says.