The most important thing is that Sweden and Finland become full members of NATO as soon as possible, not necessarily at the same time. This was said by NATO’s Secretary General when the alliance’s defense ministers met in Brussels earlier this week.
– It was the signal that this will not be joint, most likely, says Jan Hallenberg, senior research advisor at the Foreign Policy Institute.
According to Turkey, Finland has now fulfilled its part of the tripartite agreement concluded between the countries and Sweden at the NATO summit in Madrid in June, Finnish Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto announced at the security conference in Munich on Saturday.
Ankara has also repeatedly hinted that it may ratify only the Finnish application.
Major security risks in the longer term
If Finland joins NATO before Sweden, it would mean a worse security policy situation, not only for Sweden, but also for the Nordic countries and the defense alliance itself, says Hallenberg.
– It also means that the military-political cooperation between Sweden and Finland becomes more difficult, which has developed so much in recent years, he says.
If Sweden’s NATO process is short-lived, the security risks are marginal, but if it drags on, they are significantly greater, notes Hallenberg.
– But since there are bilateral guarantees from NATO countries for Sweden’s security, the difference is not as great as it was before Russia attacked Ukraine, he says.
“Sit still in the boat”
Hallenberg believes that Turkey will eventually ratify the Swedish application as well and calls on the Swedish government to restrain itself.
– Sit still in the boat and wait for the Turks to make their decisions and for them to receive pressure from other NATO countries. More of that and more arm wrestling from the Americans – I think that affects the Turks, not what Sweden says or does.