As expected, the debates around the pension reform ended Friday, February 17 at midnight sharp in the Assembly. Examination of the text, carried out in a more than tense atmosphere and largely embarrassed by the 20,000 amendments tabled then withdrawn (mainly by the left-wing opposition), had to be interrupted well before the end of the reading. The last evening of debate ended with heated discussions around the contribution of retirees benefiting from the “long career” scheme.
Only two articles out of the 20 components of the bill were finally voted on by the deputies. Article 1 concerning the end of certain special regimes was adopted, while article 2 concerning the Senior Index was rejected. So very far from the long-awaited article 7 on the postponement of the legal retirement age to 64 years. Eighteen articles have therefore still not been examined or discussed.
This is the first time that a text cannot be examined in its entirety due to a constitutional deadline reached. Members did indeed have an exact 20-day period to carry out the first reading. This strict deadline is the result of a choice by the government: the latter has decided to pass the reform via the amending social security financing bill, using article 47.1 of the Constitution, which imposes a total of 50 days for pass the bill.
However, there are still many stages in the political course of this text, and the debate should continue until the end of March, both in Parliament and in the streets.
Timed passage to the Senate within 15 days
The reform will now win the benches of the Senate. The second chamber will take up the text from February 28, and will debate behind closed doors in committee from March 2. She will also have a fixed period of 15 days to vote on the text, ie until March 12 at midnight sharp. When it is sent to the Senate without having been voted on by the Assembly, the text of the law can be transmitted as it is to the senators, with or without the amendments adopted by the Assembly. The government can even choose to introduce articles that have already been deleted by MPs.
Elisabeth Borne and the Minister of Labor Olivier Dussopt announced that the government would retain the amendments voted by the deputies during the last 20 days. They mainly concern measures favorable to primary school teachers, the liberal professions, agricultural pensions, retirees in Mayotte, and “long careers”.
The Senate has several tools to circumvent the obstruction set in motion by the thousands of amendments tabled. In particular article 38 of its rules of procedure, which allows it to shorten the discussion on an article or an amendment. It is also mainly in the hands of the Republicans, therefore partially favorable to the reform, and the debates are known to be more civilized there in the second chamber. The Renaissance group will nevertheless have to reach out to the right, and face the left, which, with a few hundred seats between the PS groups, CRCE with a majority communist and ecologist, still has the means to make the talks.
Last resorts before February 26
Whether the text is voted on and adopted or not, it will leave the Senate on March 12, heading to the Joint Joint Commission. The body is made up of 7 deputies and 7 senators, who are responsible – since the Assembly was unable to vote before sending the text to the Senate – to find common ground to arrive at a text which will then be presented again before the two chambers, to be definitively voted on.
If the bill ever fails to get enough votes in those final votes, it could enter a “shuttle” process between the two chambers. That is to say, round trips during which amendments can be added or deleted. In any case, the parliamentary process, finalized or not, will end on March 26 at midnight.
If a final version of the reform has not yet been adopted by both chambers before the gong, the government will then have control over the application of the reform. It could, as provided for in article 47.1, decide to implement it by ordinances. Or, even simpler, use 49.3 again to adopt the text without a vote by parliamentarians.
“France at a standstill” on March 7?
The decisive stages of the future of the main reform of Macron’s second five-year term are not all played out in Parliament. After five days of demonstrations since the beginning of the year, a national “blockage” is planned for March 7 by the inter-union, which threatens to put “France at a standstill” if the government does not withdraw its reform. The bet is not won, since the mobilization has dropped significantly during the last two days of demonstrations. Thursday, February 16, they were 1.3 million in the street according to the unions, and 440,000 according to the Ministry of the Interior. It is about twice less than during the first days of mobilization.
The CGT has nevertheless already called this Friday for a renewable strike in the refineries, from Monday March 6. The RATP will, for its part, be affected by a strike on March 7 and 8, while the CGT Cheminot evokes a massive movement from March 7. Primary and secondary school teachers, and newer garbage collectors, should also join the mobilization.