The Munich conference begins its 59th edition on February 17. Political leaders from nearly 150 countries meet in Germany for three days of exchanges and debates on the theme of global security. On the menu this year, Ukraine and Sino-American relations.
Thirty Heads of State and Government, a hundred ministers from all over the world, the Munich conference remains a major event which this year will have as headliners the Vice-President of the United States, Kamala Harristhe head of NATO for a few more months, Jens Stoltenberg, Emmanuel Macron or even Olaf Scholz, the German chancellor.
In 2022, this forum was held from February 18, just days before the invasion of Ukraine by Russian troops. A year later, the participants should renew their commitment to the Ukrainian government and take stock of the military and financial aid provided to kyiv since the outbreak of hostilities.
The ammunition in question
Ammunition became the priority and the problem of the allies. “ This is a war of attrition and a logistical battle “, insists the Secretary General of NATO.
Because on average, since the beginning of the invasion, the Russian army has fired more than 20,000 shells per day and the Ukrainian guns have consumed almost 5,000, and this is only an average. Problem, Ukraine has used more ammunition than the Alliance can produce. ” This is depleting our stocks and putting our industries under pressure », assures Jens Soltenberg.
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In an emergency, the United States increased its production capacity of 155 mm artillery shells to 90,000 per month, but this only partially covers Ukrainian needs. As for France, it produces only a few tens of thousands of 155 shells per year and its industry is struggling to accelerate.
The same goes for “complex” ammunition, such as himar rockets. So, far ahead of the supply of planes or tanks, the schedule for the supply of ammunition has become the real issue, because kyiv fears running out of shells.
Today, we can clearly see that with a high-intensity war, we need to have sufficient volumes to be able to finally sustain a long-term conflict. The first track, of course, is financial. This has already been done since we have a very, very strong increase in the financial means which are allocated for, precisely, the manufacture of missiles, cartridges, in short, everything we need. Of course, we don’t manufacture this equipment in a few weeks, it takes a few months hence, in fact, in Ukraine, a problem both in the use of military equipment and then, of course, the ammunition with which they need so that the Ukrainians can best defend themselves. Hence the delay today and the great frustration expressed by President Zelensky in all the meetings he may have with European leaders on the subject. I have no doubt that he will make the same requests again here in Munich tomorrow or the day after.
Hélène Conway-Mouret, Secretary of the Senate Foreign Affairs, Defense and Armed Forces Committee in France
The importance of behind-the-scenes encounters
As such, this symposium has no political weight, but several diplomatic meetings should take place behind the scenes. The head of American diplomacy, Antony Blinken, will be there, as well as Wang Yi, his Chinese counterpart.
Defense officials from the two countries have not spoken since a Chinese balloon was shot down by the US military two weeks ago, but diplomatic channels have not been broken between the US and China, relates Stephane Lagarde, our correspondent in Beijing. ” We seek competition, not conflict (…) We do not want a new cold war with China “, assured Thursday Joe Biden in a short speech. ” I hope, he said, to be able to speak with President Xi and get to the bottom of this matter “. A change in tone, noted by the state press in China. ” The United States has climbed “10,000 meters above sea level “, they are now looking for a” soft landing “, estimates the editorialist of the GlobalTimes.
The world’s first and second powers must avoid a conflict at all costs. In any case, that was the spirit of Bali last November. The summit between the Chinese and American presidents on the sidelines of the G20 to lead to a visit by Antony Blinken to Beijing at the beginning of the month, a visit canceled with the balloon affair. Will the latter deflate in Munich, via a meeting between the American Secretary of State and Wang Yi, the director of the Foreign Affairs Office of the Central Committee of the Communist Party?
The balloon saga has helped fuel nationalist sentiment and anti-American sentiment on Chinese social media, which also sees balloons everywhere. This February 16 again, the report by Internet users of an unidentified flying object ” which turned out to be a balloon », notes the People’s Daily on his Weibo accountdisrupted traffic from the airport in the provincial capital of Hebei to the southwest of the Chinese capital.
► Read our analysis: When the United States and its allies accuse China of espionage
German leaders oppose on foreign policy issues
Chancellor Olaf Scholz and his Foreign Minister, the ecologist Annalena Baerbock, will represent Germany, among others, at the Munich Conference. Their presence will, once again, be an opportunity to highlight the differences between the leaders on foreign policy issues, reminds our correspondent in Berlin, Pascal Thibault.
” I would have come dressed as a leopard, but I was a little afraid that the chancellery would not allow me to make the trip. », Annalena Baerbock’s allusion to the Aix-la-Chapelle carnival to the long-awaited German Leopard 2 battle tanks in Ukraine was not just a joke.
The Green Minister for Foreign Affairs is often on different, more resolute positions than Chancellor Scholz. This is the case for military aid to Ukraine. The German Greens have been pleading for months for more outspoken support as the chancellery stalled. The latter did not appreciate that Annalena Baerbock announced on a French channel last month that Berlin would grant other countries requesting it permission to deliver Leopard 2 tanks to kyiv. Olaf Scholz reframed his minister who had spoken of the German at war with Russia.
The two leaders also disagree on the relationship with China. Annelena Baerbock, on a harder line, had criticized Scholz’s visit to Beijing in the fall.
The government’s “national defense strategy” is at an impasse for lack of agreement between the Chancellery and Foreign Affairs. It was to be presented at the Munich conference. It is postponed indefinitely. The Chancellor’s spokeswoman, when asked about the Schlolz/Baerbock relationship, replied recently: ” should I talk about love? No “.