Ukraine currently consumes more ammunition than is produced in Western countries. In the West, the possibility of a shortage of ammunition has been known for a long time, but progress in increasing production has been slow, says the docent of military science Ilmari Käihkö.
Russia may also be threatened by a shortage of ammunition, but production there has been increased. Arms factories are pressed for work around the clock.
Sufficient ammunition can largely decide who is on top of the war. According to Käihkö, thanks to Western weapons, Ukraine has advantages, due to which it can manage with a smaller amount of ammunition.
“Significant problem”
According to Käihkö, it is not known how much ammunition Ukraine has in stock.
– But the sufficiency of ammunition is clearly a significant problem in the longer term, he states.
Käihkö points out that the matter has been known for a very long time. In Ukraine, there has been a gradual transition from Soviet-made weapons to Western weapons precisely because it is not possible to easily manufacture ammunition for Soviet weapons in the supporting countries.
Ukraine, for example, already switched to Western weapon systems in May, as ammunition for the old cannons was no longer available.
The problem is that ammunition production has not been started in the West to the extent that Ukraine would have needed.
– This is clearly a limiting factor in warfare. However, it is known that the same is true in Russia.
Artillery ammunition is used the most, but there has also been talk of a shortage of ammunition for handguns.
Good and bad in the unusability of Soviet weapons
According to Käihkö, there are both good and bad aspects for Ukraine in the fact that its Soviet-style weapons will become unusable due to running out of ammunition.
The good thing is that Ukraine will receive more modern and perhaps better equipment from the West.
The problem is that the soldiers have been trained to use older equipment and have had to switch to new equipment during the war.
Also, when the West has come with a large number of different weapon systems, logistics is quite a problem. For example, even if the artillery uses the same caliber, the ammunition may not be compatible.
That’s why Ukraine hopes for Leopard tanks: there are 2,000 of them in Europe, spare parts and ammunition are available for them, and the training is consistent.
Käihkö believes that at some point Ukraine will get more planes from the West: the current equipment wears out and is destroyed, and the availability of ammunition is a problem.
In Russia, production has been increased
According to Käihkö, in Russia, at least according to public information, more has been invested in production than in the countries that support Ukraine.
– In Russia, the arms industry currently works in three shifts, 24 hours a day.
According to Käihkö, the production of ammunition and other systems has been discussed for a long time in the supporting countries of Ukraine, but actions have been taken slowly.
– We could have reacted to the need for ammunition already last summer, when we would now start to see results.
However, Käihkö points out that not all information is necessarily public.
The interests are not exactly the same
The problem with arming Ukraine is also that not all production in Western countries goes to Ukraine, but the countries themselves also need armaments.
– Especially the countries that have now noticed that their defense has not been in good shape. In that sense, Ukraine competes with national needs, says Käihkö.
– This has been talked about in Finland as well. All the time we have to think about how much we are ready to pay and what risk we are ready to accept in order to support Ukraine. Ukraine’s interests are not exactly the same as ours.
Käihkö reminds that even though Finland also wants Ukraine to win, they do not want to give support at the price of Finland getting into a difficult or unsafe situation.
Another problem is the ability of European countries to help Ukraine, when many countries’ own defense is not terribly good either.
– You can’t support Ukraine, no matter how much political will you have, if you don’t have something to give them. The bottom of the warehouse has already been excavated and given to Ukraine.
When there is nothing left to give in the warehouse, we have to make even more difficult decisions: whether to give material from our own defense forces.
Many countries don’t have that much either. In Holland, for example, there are only about 15 tanks, which are also leased from Germany.
– It is no wonder that the Netherlands does not give Ukraine any Leopard tanks, because it has nothing to give.
It is also about how much and for how long different countries want to give support. The United States still has the ability to assist Ukraine and has given the most support of all.
US Assistant Secretary of State Jose Fernandez told on Wednesday that the United States will continue to provide military and humanitarian support to Ukraine as long as necessary.
– Ukraine can count on the help and support of the United States until it regains its territory, says Fernandez.
– One of Putin’s mistakes is that he did not know how to wait for the unity of the West.
But according to Käihkö, 40 percent of American Republicans think that Ukraine has already been supported too much.
– Ukraine cannot take for granted that the support will continue at the current level, he states.
Käihkö also points out that the support Ukraine receives is not what the country hopes for, nor will it be. According to him, the inadequacy of the support is already evident in the fact that Russia holds a fifth of Ukraine. Russia is also making progress at the moment, albeit slowly and at a consuming pace.
The cuckoo is preparing for fierce battles in the spring
Käihkö states that there is no information on the size of Russia’s ammunition stockpiles.
At the moment, it seems that Russia is shooting a lot less than in the past. This suggests that the country would start to run out of ammunition.
– Another interpretation is that Russia has stockpiled ammunition for a larger attack.
If ammunition starts to decrease on both sides, then the intensity of warfare decreases. But in that situation there is not yet:
– The biggest battles since the Second World War may come in the spring. So much more equipment and soldiers have come there.
At the beginning of the war, Russia had material superiority, but Ukraine had more soldiers. Now there are roughly the same number of soldiers in each.
According to Käihkö, Russia still partially has material superiority, especially because it has a stronger air weapon.
However, Ukraine is able to compensate for its weaknesses with better armament. There is no need to have as many ammo if you can shoot more accurately.
Ukraine has obtained the targets of many of its significant attacks with the help of Western intelligence. Russia does not have equally accurate weapons or equally good intelligence.
– These are things that Ukraine can do better with less. But it requires that support for Ukraine continues, says Käihkö.