This is good news on the employment front. The unemployment rate fell very slightly in the fourth quarter of 2022, to stand at 7.2% of the active population in France (excluding Mayotte), its lowest level since 2008. According to figures published this Tuesday, February 14 by INSEEthe rate, measured according to the standards of the International Labor Office (ILO), fell by 0.1 point: France thus has 2.2 million unemployed, or 45,000 less compared to the previous quarter.
The unemployment rate for the 4th quarter is thus 0.3 points lower than its level a year earlier, and 1 point lower than its level before the health crisis (end of 2019), specified the institute.
“Over a longer period, we observe that the unemployment rate is at its lowest level since the first quarter of 2008 if we except for the very one-off drop a little ‘trompe l’oeil’ during the first confinement”, noted Yves Jauneau, Head of the Synthesis and Economic Situation of the Labor Market Division at INSEE. During this period of Covid-19, many people had stopped looking for work.
“Unemployment is at its lowest level for the second time in 40 years. Full employment objective!”, Welcomed Emmanuel Macron on Twitter.
Apart from 2008, we have to go back to the third quarter of 1982 to find a rate of 7.2%, according to INSEE data. Several members of the government had previously welcomed these results, starting with Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne who also underlined on Twitter that the government is pursuing its “full employment objective”, i.e. an unemployment rate of around 5% which the executive hopes to achieve by 2027.
“In the thickness of the line”
For Mathieu Plane, economist at the French Observatory of Economic Conditions (OFCE), it is “rather a slight good surprise” because “we could have expected stability”, but “we are in the thickness of the line “. These figures are “fairly consistent” with the data published last week by INSEE on job creation, which showed “relative stability” in the last quarter of 2022, after seven consecutive quarters of increase, he noted. .
For Yves Jauneau, “the situation this quarter is a bit that of overall stability: unemployment, the employment rate, the latter remaining at a fairly high level”. “The employment rate for 15-64 year olds is at 68.3%, the highest since 1975. There, it is stabilizing after an increase in the previous quarters,” he added.
In a December economic note, “consistent” with the data published on Tuesday according to Yves Jauneau, INSEE forecast “a stability in the unemployment rate during the first half of 2023, concomitant with a slowdown in employment”, said he recalled, even if there are still “uncertainty factors” with the economic environment or the international situation.
The employment rate on permanent contracts “continues to improve”
By age bracket, the unemployment rate for young people (15-24 years old) fell by one point, to 16.9%, while the unemployment rate for 25-49 year olds was stable at 6.5%. Finally, the unemployment rate for people aged 50 or over barely decreased over the quarter (-0.1 point) to 5%.
In terms of “good news”, Mathieu Plane noted the employment rate on permanent contracts which “continues to improve” at 50.5% (+0.4 points). In terms of “bad news”, the economist notes “the rise in the ‘halo around unemployment’ and underemployment”, both increasing by 0.1 point, while in previous quarters “in general” they fell when unemployment fell.
The “halo around unemployment” refers to people wishing to return to the job market but who are not considered unemployed by the bit (actually looking for a job and being available to take one). In total, 1.9 million people are affected. With these “communicating vessel effects”, according to Mathieu Plane, “the news is to be taken with modesty on the drop in the unemployment rate”.