According to the Riksbank’s forecast, the key interest rate is expected to remain at a high level until 2026 (3.3 percent on average). In February last year, just before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Riksbank forecast zero interest rates throughout 2023.
– I think it is worrying that people trust our forecasts. You should probably have a little more of the attitude you have about meteorologists’ forecasts, he says.
“Stop forecasting!”
Financial analyst Henrik Mitelman believes that households take the forecasts as promises and think they can be cancelled.
– Put down the forecasting work! Not with regard to the inflation work – you have to have forecasts for that, but the message that we believe that the interest rate will develop in a certain way in the future. It has shown that it is not true not quite. But households see it as a promise.
“Can’t put it down”
But dropping the forecasts is not an option, says Erik Thedéen:
– You cannot put down forecasts if you are trying to make decisions that have a bearing on the future. Then I don’t know what we should have as a decision basis. Then it all becomes a guessing game.