Russia’s major offensive has begun, said the US think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) late Wednesday. ISW reviews in the latest in your report (you switch to another service), that the attack has started in eastern Ukraine, in the Luhansk region. However, according to the report, the attack is not yet in full force.
Ukrainian battles situation map (you switch to another service) maintenance expert of John Helin however, the situation is unclear.
– There are no indications yet that this is precisely the massive attack planned by Ukraine, Helin says.
According to him, Russia has a large number of mobilized soldiers ready.
– Russia has troops to attack. They also have a desire to do something before the West’s latest arms help arrives.
According to Helin, it is known that 100,000 to 150,000 men remained from Russia’s mobilization last fall, who were not immediately sent to supplement the troops on the front.
– Part of this group has probably already been used, but some of them should still be grouped in Russia near the border.
According to Helin, Russia would save this force of around 100,000 men for a possible larger attack.
The beginning of the week was possibly the bloodiest of the war
According to Helin, the attack activity in the area has increased during the past week. The information is also supported by the losses that Ukraine has reported to Russia. Ukraine said more than a thousand Russian soldiers had fallen on Monday. In the fighting on Tuesday and Wednesday, it reported more than 900 casualties on both days.
If the numbers are correct, Monday was the bloodiest of the entire war at the front.
– These are scary numbers. If there are 300,000 recruits and the daily pace is this, then the table will be empty again in a year, researcher Jukka Viitaniemi The National Defense University (MPKK) says.
Despite the possible massive losses, many parties have recently estimated that the initiative has turned to the Russians.
– The situation seems particularly difficult in Bahmut, where the Ukrainians are almost under blockade, says Helin.
Bahmut has become a symbol of Ukrainian resistance. In Ukrainian social media, it is called the main bastion. Russia has been trying to take it over for several months.
– The fact is that the front line north and south of Bahmut, for example, has moved west for months, says Viitaniemi.
– Bahmut’s situation looks really bad. The Ukrainians have practically one supply route, and that too is bad. If nothing changes in the next few days, it looks like the Ukrainians will have to withdraw from there.
However, according to Helin, losing Bahmut would not be revolutionary.
– It’s hard to see any individual consequences.
Helin estimates that the Ukrainians have stayed in Bahmut this long to prepare new defense positions for the next level.
What would a possible major attack look like?
Many experts following the war have put the start of the attack in February. He wrote about it, among other things Financial Times (you will switch to another service) on Sunday.
According to Viitaniemi, a possible new major attack would be something different from what was seen a year ago when Russia attacked from many different directions.
– We don’t see any armored ferries in the steppes in the style of the Second World War, says Viitaniemi. In Pansarilauta, Viitaniemi means large tank formations.
Helin is also of the opinion that Russia probably intends to carry out a series of smaller attacks and not one big attack.
– Now we may see the beginning of such a series that Russia will rather try to take one piece at a time instead of going to the end all at once, says Helin.
Despite the recent pressure from Russia, experts do not consider the situation in Ukraine as a whole to be hopeless. They do not believe in a bigger breakthrough in Russia.
– In a protracted war, the front lines don’t always move in the same direction, there is a kind of fluctuation, as is happening now, says Viitaniemi.
According to Helin, the Russian equipment is significantly worse and older than a year ago.
– They have worse thermal cameras if at all, Helin says.
He also reminds that Russia lost a significant number of its professional officers last year.
– Therefore, they have fewer opportunities to do anything militarily ingenious.
According to Viitaniemi, Ukraine’s advantage is its will to fight.
– Getting it off is extremely difficult. It is their spiritual backbone that has only hardened further.