Russian major offensive may have started stealthily

A new major Russian offensive in Ukraine has been said to be possible at any moment and tens of thousands of soldiers are said to have been sent to the front.

The offensive has already begun, according to war analysts.

Ukraine and its Western allies have for weeks been predicting a major Russian attack in the near future – possibly in time for the anniversary of the war, or at least before Ukraine is reinforced with new and stronger tanks.

Russia is considered to have moved many forces towards front areas in the east. On Wednesday, the Ukrainian governor of partially occupied Luhansk, Serhiy Hajdaj, said that it is about tens of thousands of soldiers. He then said that the Russian offensive will be launched next week from three different directions.

But there are many indications that it has already started, albeit gradually, according to analysts at the US-based think tank Institute for the study of war (ISW).

“Russian forces have regained the initiative in Ukraine and have begun their next major offensive in Luhansk,” they write in a daily report on developments in the war.

Three divisions

During the past week, Russia’s activities in northeastern Ukraine – “especially northwest of Svatove near Kupyansk and west of Kreminna” – are considered to have stepped up considerably.

At least three large units, divisions, have been directed there, indicating that the Russian offensive has begun, “although Ukrainian forces are thus far preventing Russian forces from making any significant progress,” ISW’s analysts write.

They assess that the major offensive has probably not reached full strength yet, but they also state that it is by no means a given that Russia will achieve its goals.

If the Russian forces go in fully with these forces, Russia also risks the offensive culminating in the already hotly contested front area known as the Svatove-Kreminna line, the war analysts write. That is, without achieving the Russian goal of at least taking control of all of Luhansk and Donetsk.

“Such a culmination would likely give the Ukrainian forces a window to exploit for their own counter-offensive.”

Appealing for aircraft

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi is traveling in Europe. On Wednesday he was in London and spoke before the British Parliament. Then he pleaded for the British to further step up support for the Ukrainian defense effort by supplying fighter jets.

Zelenskyi then traveled on to Paris, where he met with French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Today he is expected to appear at the EU summit in Brussels.