Demonstrators are once again on the streets of France to oppose the government’s pension reform. This is already the third day of strikes and demonstrations since the reform was put into work again.
PARIS President Emmanuel Macron intends to pass his proposed pension reform despite opposition.
Past Presidents Nicolas Sarkozy and François Hollande tried it, but had to abandon their project due to widespread opposition.
Macron’s proposal is very much similar to Sarkozy’s, except that while Sarkozy pushed his reform through personally, Macron has now taken a stand on the matter only indirectly.
The bill would raise the official retirement age in France from 62 to 64. One would have to work for 43 years to receive a full pension instead of the current 42 years.
The government, the minister of economy, does the dirty work on his behalf Bruno Le Maire and above all the Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne. The worst place for them is now ahead, as the two most intense weeks of the bill’s consideration begin today.
It has been possible to make amendments and additions to the bill since the end of January, and there are already more than 20,000 of them. The processing will last until midnight on February 17, but there is no certainty of the result.
A mere coalition of government parties is not enough to pass the law, as they only have 249 votes in the National Assembly. In a vote, 289 would be needed for support, so 40 MPs from other parties must be persuaded to support the proposal.
It is difficult, because the group of Republicans, who support the pension reform in principle, is also divided. The left and the extreme right are unequivocally against the reform, and they are almost competing with each other as to who opposes the law more effectively.
The processing of the case is complicated by the fact that for many it is not only the pension law but also opposition to President Macron.
This is how the French government can proceed in resolving the situation
In practice, the government has five options in front of it.
1. If the government were to get 62 representatives of the Republicans in addition to its own coalition (Renaissance, Horizon, MoDem), there would be 311 votes out of a total of 577 votes in the National Assembly. This would clearly be more than necessary and the law would therefore clearly pass, but this is also very unlikely.
2. If the government received 23 votes from the Republicans, the bill could be moved forward, but after that the actual text of the law still needs to be voted on. In practice, this would only move the government’s problems forward.
3. If the bill does not move forward, the government can use its veto right again. It has already used this right ten times, which has contributed to increasing the opposition to the law; naturally, the opposition does not like the fact that the government rushes through its laws. This will probably bring more than a million people to the streets today to oppose not only the law, but also the government.
4. The Constitution also has a light version of the right of veto. With it, the government could postpone the processing of the law and give more time for negotiations and changes. If the situation has not changed after 50 days, the law will go forward automatically.
This method of processing is intended, for example, for the urgent processing of the budget, so now that it is not actually a law that is important for the operation of the state, it is possible that the Constitutional Council will not approve it.
5. The last resort is to introduce a referendum. Both Nupes, which unites the left-wing parties and the Greens, and the National Front have already submitted a proposal to hold a referendum, but the government opposes it.
A referendum is a very unlikely option also because the final decision is made by the president based on the proposal of the National Assembly. Since the president is not obliged to implement the proposal, Macron probably would not agree to it.
You can discuss the topic 8.2. until 11 p.m.