Today, Sweden has large electricity surpluses and exports more electricity than ever before. But in two new future analyzes from the Energy Agency and Swedish Power Network there is concern about a looming electricity shortage.
– We see how industry’s electricity needs are increasing much faster than the expansion of new electricity, and from 2027 Sweden may have a deficit in electricity, says Mattias Jonsson, head of unit at Svenska kraftnät.
Closed nuclear reactors
Last year, Sweden’s electricity surplus was 35 terawatt hours. Svenska kraftnät’s statistics show that so far the expansion of wind power has provided much more electricity per year than what was lost with closed nuclear reactors.
But in the new forecasts, the industry’s needs are increasing faster than previously thought. Surpluses can disappear and prices skyrocket.
– We see a risk that large industrial investments will not be possible if we do not get a faster expansion of electricity production started, says Martin Johansson, at the Energy Agency, who, together with several other authorities, has analyzed future electricity needs.
Hybrit and Northvolt
It is about the future of prestige projects such as Hybrit and H2 Greensteels – facilities for fossil-free steel Norrbotten – as well as the expansion of Northvolt in Skellefteå and Gothenburg.
The future report sees a great need for offshore wind power and preferably more nuclear power. But that energy will not arrive until the 2030s at the earliest – if it even comes out.
– In order to cope with the industrial expansion until the latter part of the 2020s, it is basically only land-based wind that can solve the needs, says Martin Johansson.
The price then? Svenska kraftnät predicts that the electricity price will moderate in the next two years. But from 2027 onwards, when the demand for electricity increases, it may go up again.
Investors back off
Reduced electricity surpluses can lead to a situation where there will be increasing prices that will cause investors to back off.
– If we don’t get more electricity production, the electricity price can increase significantly, then you need to review whether it is still attractive to make these investments, says Mattias Jonsson.
State mining giant LKAB confirms the fears. The company needs more electricity in Gällivare as early as 2026 and in the long term a whopping 55 terawatt hours per year – more than Denmark’s total consumption.
– We definitely see great risks that our schedules will be postponed – or not at all – if the expansion of electricity does not go faster in the next few years, says LKAB’s communications director Niklas Johansson.