Assiom Forex 2023: focus on inflation, rate hikes and recession risk

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Assiom Forex 2023 focus on inflation rate hikes and recession

(Tiper Stock Exchange) –

Better-than-expected economic data and an upward revision of growth forecasts are restoring optimism among financial market operators. But it is too early to talk about a trend reversal. This is the message that emerges from 29th Assiom Forex Congress. At the center of the second day – which took place today in the presence of Mico in Milan – lspeech by the governor of the Bank of Italy Ignazio Visco. “Despite the cyclical slowdown, the main indicators of the health of the Italian banking system remain overall positive,” he said Visco.

In light of the announcement rate hike of 50 basis points by the ECBthe Governor’s warning is clear: “It is necessary to strike the right balance between the risk of doing too little, leaving inflation high for an excessive period of time, such as to affect expectations and monetary stability, and that of doing too much, leading to a fall in income and employment and jeopardizing financial stability, with no less serious repercussions on price trends”.

In a scenario characterized by inflation, an increase in interest rates and the risk of a recession, the actions to be implemented to encourage the return of confidence on the markets were topics of discussion, in the afternoon session of Assiom Forex, between the president of Confindustria

Carlo Bonomthe; the CEO of Banco BPM, Joseph Chestnut; Veronica DeRomanis, professor of European Economics, Luiss Guido Carli and Stanford University (Florence); Donato MasciandaroFull Professor of Political Economy, Bocconi University Milan; Alessandro Melzi d’Eril, adi SOUL Holding; Massimo Mocio, president of Assiom Forex; Mario Nava, Director General for Structural Reform Support European Commission; And Claudia Parzani, President of the Italian Stock Exchange.

“Entrepreneurs are optimistic by nature, I see the glass as half full: I don’t see a recession, we are announcing it but there are no numbers and I don’t see it – he said Bonomi –. Confindustria was the first to say this year that things weren’t as bad as they imagined. We see a positive year assuming there are three caveats: the first is that from the point of view of energy costs there is no new flare-up, that the right things are done on the country’s industrial policy and that the challenges of the transition to the European. What happened in Europe – continued the president of Confindustria – was predictable for the moment, i.e. just the intervention of the ECB to slow down inflation, but in all honesty I think that someone for years had the illusion of being able to live with interest negatives. Which is unthinkable. In healthy companies, 3% I don’t think is a problem.

“Recession risk? In my opinion it is absolutely out of the question – he said Chestnut –. I see a year in which growth continues and rates rise not that much: at 3%, as the president of Confindustria Bonomi has also said, it is a level that the country’s economy can absolutely manage. It seems to me that these elements allow us to have a healthy optimism for 2023″. Faced with the request to the banks by the ECB for greater capitalisation, the CEO of Banco BPM hoped that the request to set aside capital was over. “Let’s hope – said Castagna – that first they realize that the capital is even in excess. Whoever gives us money to do the business sooner or later asks us for the cost. The regulator must also take this into account”.

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