(Tiper Stock Exchange) – The index of social hardship elaborated by Confcommercio is downsized, combining the labor market situation (wide unemployment rate) and inflation. But the indicator of the malaise of families remains at historically high levels also at the beginning of 2023due to the uncertainties affecting the view on the coming months.
The December MIC stood at an estimated value of 17.2 points, down by just two tenths of a point compared to the value of the previous month. The contained reduction in the social unease area is the synthesis of a slowdown in the growth rate of the prices of frequently purchased goods and services and a stabilization of unemployment.
Average for 2022 the Mic stood at 16.9, a lower value than in the previous two years, with an increasing trend in the second half. This evolution is to be attributed exclusively to the decisive recovery of the inflationary component.
The job market – reports Confcommercio – showed a substantial estate. The number of employed increased by 37,000 units over November and the number of job seekers remained substantially unchanged. These dynamics have resulted in a stability of official unemployment rate (7.8%), associated with a reduction in the number of inactive people (-54 thousand units over November). Also considering the CIHG and the checks issued by the solidarity funds, the expanded unemployment rate is stable at 8.7%.
In December i prices of goods and services with a high frequency of purchase – explains the association – they showed a trend change of 8.5%, down from 8.8% in the previous month. The first estimates of January indicate an increase (+9% on an annual basis), to signal the difficulties in the process of easing inflationary tensions. Indeed, there is no shortage factors that lead to caution. Core inflation is growing, the transmission of the energy shock and the prices of some raw materials from upstream to downstream has not ended.
“The negative effects on the demand for consumption – affirms the association of the traders – they could accentuate the fragility of the economic frameworkwith a slowdown in the economy in the first months of the year and a deterioration in the labor market. The combination of these elements could help maintain the area of the social unease on historically high values even in the first months of 2023″.