Over the past week, gas prices have fallen to their lowest level in 17 months, down 80 percent from their peak in late August.
What during the autumn was seen as the beginning of a complete energy crisis has developed into something else. Europe’s gas depots are currently 81 percent full, just over 20 percent above the five-year average for this time of year.
In a report that the news agency Bloomberg recently published, the inventory level is judged to be so high that it is not only sufficient for the rest of the winter, but gas stocks are also predicted to be over 50 percent at the end of winter.
– You can say that the worst is over. Then to say that nothing can happen for the remaining period – then you are naive. January and February are usually the trickiest months, points out Christian Kopfer, commodity analyst at Handelsbanken.
The gas price of greatest importance
For Swedish households who have torn their hair out over expensive electricity bills, the price of gas is of great importance. When large parts of Europe use gas for heating and electricity production, it also has consequences for electricity prices in Sweden.
Several factors, including the mild weather in combination with reduced consumption, have now contributed to the change of scene. Christian Kopfer makes the assessment that the relatively lower price level will hold for the remainder of 2023 for Sweden.
– I still believe that 2023 will generally mean lower prices than 2022. This is based on the fact that consumption will be lower, you must also remember that in 2022 France had enormous problems with its nuclear power production, the country is normally Europe’s most important exporter and was even importer of electricity in 2022. Since then, Finland’s new reactor has come up, which has great significance for the Nordic region.
Globally, a similar pattern is visible. In the American gas market, stocks could be replenished during the first week of January – something that had never happened before in that particular time period.
– Demand could be on the way to a record low in January if the unexpected warm weather holds, says Emily McClain, analyst at Rystad Energy, in a comment to the Financial Times.