Ukraine is eyeing modern tanks at a meeting at the Ramstein Air Base in Germany on Friday.
European promises to supply heavy equipment have been restrained by the suspicion of an escalation of the conflict. Above all, Germany has been an obstacle to the export of tanks. Germany is worried about the expansion of the war. Chancellor Olaf Scholz has been reluctant to grant an export permit, as some Germans are strongly opposed to arms deliveries.
On Wednesday, Scholz said at the World Economic Forum meeting in Davos that NATO countries must avoid the escalation of a war of aggression by Russia into a war between NATO and Russia.
What if German Chancellor Scholz is right?
Investigator Magnus Christianson In an email interview with , the Swedish National Defense Academy estimates that the risk of escalation in the short term is very low. Russian forces are spent on the Ukrainian front.
According to Christiansson, the situation may be different in the long term.
– The problem is that the war can become long, and the West can become a direct supporter of attacks on territories that Russia considers its own, not least Crimea, he says.
In order to expand the attack, however, according to Christianson, Russia should take unprecedented measures at home.
– An attack on NATO would require massive mobilization, transition to a war economy, confiscation of oligarchs’ property, elite purges and probably some kind of passive acceptance from Beijing, lists the Swedish Russia expert.
“Putin reacts verbally and symbolically”
Professor Thomas Ries is on the same lines as his researcher colleague.
– A battle tank has no meaning in the expansion of the war. The war is being waged not only against Ukraine, but against all of Europe. The important thing is that the president Vladimir Putin loses. This means that Ukraine will get the lost territories back and Putin will stop destroying Ukrainian civilians and infrastructure.
Professor Ries estimates that Putin must of course react both verbally and symbolically.
– However, in practice, he has little chance of expanding the war. He has no chance of doing so in the short term.
However, the researcher of international relations reminds us that Putin is trying to gather strength for a bigger attack.
– However, he is trying to expand the war. However, his resources are limited. Effective ground units require at least six months of training and combat-ready equipment and logistics, which Russia does not have.
According to Professor Ries, as the war progresses, Putin also fears the citizens.
– There is a limit to how much Russian families are willing to sacrifice for Putin’s war. They tolerate war as long as it does not affect them personally.
However, Putin was already worried about the first mobilization. An increase in Russian losses could lead to internal unrest, Tomas Ries estimates.
“Does not make war parties”
Head of the Russia group at the National Defense University, lieutenant colonel Simo Pesu on the other hand, he estimates that giving tanks to Ukraine does not make Germany any more a party to the war than other countries.
– It wouldn’t do that as a single act, Pesu said in ‘s morning on Friday.
According to Pesu, Russia’s nuclear deterrence has ensured that “no other great power would push its armed forces into Ukraine.”
According to Pesu, the nuclear deterrence has also restrained aid to Ukraine. He points out that tanks are just a “single weapon”.
– A single weapon will not solve this war. Are there any [panssarivaunuja] now a hundred or two hundred. But they provide the conditions as a part of the whole for Ukraine to achieve its goals, Pesu estimates.