A possible major attack by Russia has been expected throughout the beginning of the year.
Anna Lehmusvesi,
Matti Konttinen
According to a military expert, Russia is trying to resolve the war in Ukraine with a major attack. A possible major attack by Russia has been expected throughout the beginning of the year.
Lieutenant colonel Jarmo Mattila The National Defense Academy says that Russia’s preparations for the attack are already underway and that Russia is both training and forming new forces to be transferred to the territory of Ukraine.
– Russia is trying to accumulate sufficient resources and make a decisive attack, Mattila assessed in an interview with aam on Thursday.
Mattila expects the attack to focus on ground forces and take place in eastern Ukraine.
Russia’s business launch is ongoing all the time
Russia has been rumored to be starting a new campaign. However, according to Mattila, this is not necessarily necessary. Mattila points out that even the previous business proposal has not ended yet.
– The business launch that started in September is still going on, no new declaration is needed here.
Mattila says that the slowness at the moment is the inadequacy of Russia’s educational capacity. The garrisons are not able to accept all the incoming trainees.
Director of the Alexander Institute Markku Kangaspuro points out that a public decision to launch a new movement would be extremely unpopular in Russia and therefore it may not happen.
An attack on Crimea would not be a surprise to Russia
The New York Times (you are moving to another service) reported on Thursday, based on official sources, that the United States has warmed to the idea of helping Ukraine invade Crimea.
According to Jarmo Mattila, the aid would be an indication that the United States wants to continue supporting Ukraine. According to Mattila, Ukraine’s goal has always been the recapture of Crimea. However, Mattila points out that the nature of the aid still lacks concreteness.
He reminds that a Pentagon official of the US Department of Defense has previously said that long-range missiles will not be introduced to Ukraine.
– But what else could that support be other than tangible equipment, Mattila said.
According to Markku Kangaspuro, the help of the United States in the recapture of Crimea would force Russia to make additional efforts to keep Crimea to itself.
According to Kangaspuro, Russia has taken into account that Ukraine might focus more of its attacks in the direction of Crimea.
– After all, Ukraine has already been able to carry out smaller attacks in the direction of Crimea, Kangaspuro reminded.
Kangaspuro estimates that if Ukraine were to get a qualitatively new type of weaponry, it would enable more massive attacks on Crimea.
It would also force Russia to make new arrangements and move resources in the direction of Crimea to counter the attacks.