This year, the event is awaited with particular impatience. “With my friends, we all exposed ourselves to the virus to get sick as soon as possible and not be stuck in bed for the Spring Festival,” says Chuwa, a 30-year-old Beijinger who is about to take the train to Yunnan Province, in the South. “Last year we couldn’t leave Beijing, it’s really the first time since 2019 that we will finally be able to meet together to celebrate with dignity the entry into the year of the rabbit”, she rejoices. .
In Beijing, after the passage of a huge epidemic wave – following the chaotic lifting of the “zero Covid” policy, on December 7 – life has resumed its normal course. The lakes and rivers are transformed into giant ice rinks, the crowd invades the shopping centers. With the approach of the Lunar New Year, on January 22, a period during which many Chinese traditionally return to their native region, the great transhumance has begun. The government anticipates some 2 billion journeys this month, twice as many as last year (but 70% of the 2019 level).
Anxiety in the countryside
However, these huge population displacements run the risk of the epidemic spreading even faster in the countryside, where the health system is fragile or even non-existent. Worried, the authorities “suggested” to restore Covid tests in crowded places like train stations. The results would already be terrifying, according to various testimonies. Mortality for people over 65 would have been multiplied by three to six depending on the province, according to a study in the newspaper Nikkei.
Criticized for its total lack of transparency, the power ended up admitting on January 14 nearly 60,000 deaths linked to Covid between December 8 and January 12. An assessment that is undoubtedly greatly underestimated. According to Airfinity, a British medical testing company, 20,000 people actually die from the virus every day. Some provinces such as Henan, the most populous in China, in the center of the country, put forward the figure of 90% of patients, or 90 million inhabitants.
At the same time, many Chinese also want to take advantage of the reopening of borders effective since January 8. Prefectures are again issuing passports and travel permits to Chinese nationals. “After the party, I’m going to Thailand with my friends to go scuba diving, it’s so exciting to be able to travel again,” Chuwa continues.
Beijing aims for herd immunity in early March, but…
But some are preparing to leave their country permanently. In her studio in Beijing, Mei, a 25-year-old publicist, no longer takes off her Japanese learning books. “I made the decision to leave last October, during the confinement in Beijing, I have not changed my mind: we are going to settle in Japan.” The lifting of health restrictions did not change his mind. “On the contrary, she said, it is a sign that this government is doing anything, in defiance of people’s health.” Like her, most of her friends are about to turn the page on China. “It’s not easy to leave, recognizes the young woman, my parents do not understand my choice, but I am suffocating here: I need security and not to be at the mercy of irrational decisions.” Her boyfriend, a computer engineer, is of the same mind. “Since the reopening, I have been working every day until midnight, my salary has dropped again, society wants to make up for the time lost due to the epidemic, even if it means seeing us fall ill from exhaustion.” And this, while he is just recovering from his Covid…
The most optimistic scenario hoped for by the government is to control infections by the end of February, and to achieve herd immunity for the traditional annual session of the Chinese “parliament”, at the beginning of March, which will formalize the third term of president. of Xi Jinping and the appointments within the new government.
This road to post-Covid is still strewn with pitfalls. “As all countries in the world have experienced, a first wave of infections is usually followed by a second and a third wave linked to variants,” warns a Chinese doctor. By ending the “zero Covid” policy without any preparation, Xi Jinping has made a decidedly risky bet.