The members of the Socialist Party will have to choose their new boss on January 19. The two finalists are known: the outgoing first secretary Olivier Faure, craftsman of the Nupes, and the mayor of Rouen, Nicolas Mayer-Rossignol, much more reluctant to the union of the left as it was defined during the legislative agreement of May 2022. If Olivier Faure leaves with a comfortable lead, the leader of the Socialists still has something to worry about.
Olivier Faure must first solve a mathematical problem: his lead over Nicolas Mayer-Rossignol is certainly wide – around 20 points – but he has no reserve votes. His opponent was also not mistaken, judging that he was just as much in a position to win as the outgoing first secretary.
The mayor of Rouen should indeed be able to count on a good part of the 20% of members who voted in favor of Hélène Geoffroy, in the name of distrust of Nupes and distrust of Olivier Faure.
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The result could then be played on the small half of the Socialists who did not move during the first round. Abstainers that the two candidates will try to seduce by crisscrossing France for the next six days.
Complicated succession for Nicolas Mayer-Rossignol
For those close to Olivier Faure, the victory of Nicolas Mayer-Rossignol would be the disaster scenario for the PS. The outgoing leadership is indeed already assured of retaining the majority in the National Council, the party’s parliament. Nicolas Mayer-Rossignol would therefore be in the current situation of Emmanuel Macron: a boss without a majority.
Except that in the Socialist Party, ” there is no 49-3 “recalls the Mr. Election of Olivier Faure, Pierre Jouvet, ” it would be total paralysis “. Hence the deep conviction of the Faure camp that the militants will not take this risk and will grant a new mandate to the outgoing first secretary.
The PS deeply divided on Nupes
The supporters of Olivier Faure may claim that the union of the left as it has existed since the legislative elections has been approved by the majority by the militants, the reality is more nuanced. Admittedly, the radical opponents of Nupes and the rapprochement with La France insoumise (LFI), who were gathered behind Hélène Geoffroy, only have 20% of the vote. But added to the 30% of Nicolas Mayer-Rossignol, who defends a line where the PS would be the only leader of the left, this gives a party literally cut in two. If he is reappointed for a new three-year term, Olivier Faure will have to make concessions… otherwise the party could implode.