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Russia’s announced ceasefire in Ukraine during the Russian Orthodox Christmas holiday can be seen as propaganda. Russia expert Carolina Vendil Pallin doesn’t think it will work.
– Trust in the other side is at such an incredibly low level in this war, she says.
According to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision, the ceasefire applies for 36 hours from noon on Friday. Ukraine, via presidential adviser Mychajlo Podoljak, has dismissed the whole thing as “hypocrisy”.
Carolina Vendil Pallin, research leader at the Russia project at the Total Defense Research Institute (FOI), assesses that it is difficult to establish a ceasefire in this situation.
– It would have been more logical to have a ceasefire over the New Year, which is the big weekend for both Russians and Ukrainians. But that didn’t happen, she says.
“A war of attrition”
– Both sides really need a break. This is a war of attrition. We have to wait and see what happens in practice.
Bringing about a ceasefire will also be generally difficult, she believes.
– It will be difficult to establish a ceasefire that is respected by both sides, says Vendil Pallin.
– It also happens in a situation where Russia has attacked Ukrainian infrastructure on what is their big Christmas holiday, what we celebrate on December 24, they celebrate on New Year’s Eve. Russia continued and the Ukrainians were left sitting in cold houses.
Domestic political propaganda
Vendil Pallin emphasizes that Russia has units, such as the infamous Wagner group, in Ukraine that do not belong to the regular Russian army. It may be unclear how they act.
– What happens if they continue and Ukraine responds to it? Russia will certainly try to use this propaganda domestically. To point out that Ukraine does not respect the Orthodox faith, that one does not respect the holiday and respects a signal in good faith.
Russian patriarch Kirill, loyal to the Kremlin, had called for a ceasefire before Putin’s announcement. But the Russian Orthodox Church no longer has any formal role in Ukraine. For Orthodox Ukrainians, there is now a Ukrainian community.
– Ukraine no longer recognizes the Russian Orthodox Church, which is ruled from Moscow. They are seen as tools of power, says Carolina Vendil Pallin.