Kerttu Niskasen and Krista Pärmäkoski have a unique opportunity – an expert explains how the Tour de Ski victory can come to Finland

The Tour de Ski starts on Saturday with sprints. See the Tour’s program and ‘s broadcast information from this link.

Therese Johaug left the racetracks for others, Ebba Andersson recovering from corona and last year’s number one Natalia Nepryaeva is out of international competitions. This is why this season’s women’s race for the Tour de Ski is exceptionally open.

Sports expert Toni Roposen in my opinion, no less than eight names can be nominated as winning candidates.

Roposen’s list includes Sweden Frida Karlssonof the United States Jessie Diggins and Rosie BrennanFinland Krista Pärmäkoski and Kerttu Niskanen and Norway Heidi Weng, Tiril Udnes Weng and Anne Kjersti Kalvå.

– Now if there is ever a chance to have a Finnish winner in the Tour, Roponen assures.

Karlsson “infinitely unpredictable”

Toni Roposen’s early favorite is Frida Karlsson. In Ropose’s opinion, the 23-year-old Swede has shown that he is physically as tough as Therese Johaug, and he can handle all the distances of the Tour, from sprint to 20 kilometers.

– But he is infinitely unpredictable. It was also seen at the Beijing Olympics when he completely collapsed.

Karlsson has won World Cup competitions on normal distances and has also reached the finals in sprints. Versatility, oxygen uptake and talent are there, but so are weaknesses.

– Frida Karlsson’s biggest obstacle is on the tactical side and her challenge is that she can keep a cool head. He must understand that he is the biggest early favorite and not try anything stupid, Roponen said.

– All the trips suit her well enough in that group, but Frida has often fallen into the fact that she has set out to be the leader of the group and skied too hard.

Finns and Diggins as challengers

The canines of Finnish women, Krista Pärmäkoski and Kerttu Niskanen, are both experienced Tour de Ski visitors. Roponen believes that Pärmäkoske is also considered internationally as a candidate for the top three.

– I think Krista is mentally very strong. He has skied a really good Tour many times and has been able to stretch after bad days. If Krista is in a good position after the first three days of the race, then she has a chance to fight even for the Tour victory, Roponen states.

– He has a lot of experience with this group, which is necessary for success at the Tour de Ski.

Pärmäkoski has been second in the tour once (2016–17) and once third (2018–19).

In Roponen’s opinion, 34-year-old Niskanen’s experience and the new self-confidence gained last season are also assets this winter. Niskanen, like the 32-year-old Pärmäkoski, know that the further the Tour progresses, the stronger they are.

– Both Pärmäkoski and Niskase have a chance to get into the top three – even at the same time.

Niskanen’s best finish on the Tour is last year’s fifth place, just behind Pärmäkoski.

Jessie Diggins, 31, won the Tour in the second season, when Norwegian skiers skipped the Tour because of the corona. However, the American showed his ability to stretch and his will to fight at that time, which has been seen both in the World Cup and in prestigious competitions. In Roposen’s opinion, a race program like the Tour de Ski is made for Diggins.

– Jessie’s biggest weakness is the traditional ten, and she is very sensitive to problems with lubrication at that time. He’s a tremendously tough fighter by the way, and I think he’ll be able to stretch.

Brennan and the Norwegians as dark horses

Another American skier, Rosie Brennan, is also the epitome of stretching and fighting. Brennan, 34, has visited the World Cup podium several times and celebrated two victories.

– Even though the previous World Cup weekend in Davos doesn’t necessarily give an absolutely correct picture of where we’re going because of the absences, Brennan skied both trips well and has clearly been on the rise.

Heidi Weng, 31, was one of the skiers who skipped Davos. The Norwegian, who is recovering from a bad concussion, has won the Tour twice, but hasn’t been in as good shape since then.

– He has by no means been in bad shape this year, but skipping Davos was smart for him. It may be that she will now come to the Tour in a very good condition and will be able to challenge the very top women.

Tiril Udnes Weng, 26, and Anne Kjersti Kalvå, 30, have raised their level this season. TU Weng is primarily known as a sprinter, but this winter he has also covered normal distances. Again, Kalvå has skied good competitions in a variety of ways.

– Kalvå has surprised us all this year. Often, an athlete who makes such a breakthrough is able to go to such competitions without pressure. If the Tour gets off to a good start, anything can happen.

The third race day is the culmination point

Although the Tour de Ski is seven races long, in Roposen’s opinion it is important for every competitive skier to have a good start to the tour.

This would have been emphasized even more if the jury of the race organizers had stuck to the change in the second part of the competition. The International Ski Federation (FIS) announced on Wednesday that the 10-kilometer traditional skiing pursuit race in Val Müstair will be changed to a joint start due to the snow situation.

According to Roposen, the change would have affected the competition significantly and hurt the sprinters. The teams didn’t like the change either, and at Friday’s team managers’ meeting, Norway and Finland, among others, proposed returning the race format to pursuit. This was also done.

– Reverting to pursuit will without a doubt improve both Krista’s and Kertu’s settings, as it is likely that they will not be among the six in the free sprint, Roponen stated.

In the joint start race, Pärmäkoski and Niskanen would probably have had to take the reins and lead the group. Now they can focus on chasing those ahead.

– It is always better to hunt from the chasing position and catch the time difference. This is a significant positive thing for both Krista and Kertu. When the third stage still has the traditional intermediate start race, it may be possible that after three race days the Finns will be right on top.

In Roposen’s opinion, the 10-kilometer timed start race of traditional skiing in Oberstdorf on the third day of the race is the culmination point of the tour. In that, Finnish skiers have the opportunity to set themselves apart from others. At the same time, Diggins and Brennan have to take the save wins if they want to fight for the overall victory.

– Jessie is interesting. He can ski traditional sprints at a very high level, but very rarely skis traditional normal distances well.

The traditional games are a place of attack for the Finns

On the fourth day, the program includes a 20-kilometer freestyle pursuit, where it is important to join good chasing groups.

– The problem with the Tour is that if you fail in the opening sprint, you are immediately in the chasing position.

The free sprint is not one of Kerttu Niskanen’s strongest distances, for example. In Roponen’s opinion, it is important that Niskanen’s head remains cool during the first stage, because the next three competitions are quite strong for the Finnish skier.

– I believe that even in the traditional sprint of Val di Fiemme, Kerttu can be surprisingly good. At the second, third and fourth stages, he has the opportunity to join the top fight, because he has enough stamina.

The races of the traditional normal distances are both for Niskanen and Pärmäkoski where they have to succeed and come up with solutions. Instead, both sprints are places for Diggins and TU Weng, Diggins has a chance to break away in the still free 20 km pursuit race.

– Heidi Weng, Kalvå and Brennan are smooth drillers. They aren’t bad at anything, but they aren’t great at anything either. Karlsson, on the other hand, is good at everything, but his head is what needs to be right.

Alpe Cermis measures mental resources

In the final climb of Alpe Cermis, which concludes the Tour de Ski, you must also find mental strength if you want to fight for the top position. Roponen says he has already learned Virpi Sarasvuo (b Fibrous) from the era that the success of a demanding ascent depends a lot on the setting from which you start.

– If you are fighting for the top ranking, then you find those resources in a completely different way.

Sarasvuo is the only Finnish winner of the Tour, including men. He won twice in 2006–07 and 2008–09.

Roponen believes that Karlsson, Weng and Pärmäkoski will be strong in Alpe Cermis, but also reminds that Diggins is dangerous.

– Jessie had already invested in long distances for the Beijing Olympics. He may be better than ever in that final climb.

During the seven races, many things can happen that can go wrong and sway the predictions. According to Roponen, falling in sprint races, for example, can cause problems for early favourites.

The conditions and thus the success of the maintenance teams also play a big role. This was seen at last year’s Tour in Lenzerheide, when the success of the Finnish service team laid the foundation for Kerttu Niskanen’s stage win.

– Total failures can play a significant role when the journeys are this short, Roponen reminds.