Will France experience power cuts this winter? Are some departments more weakened than others?
[Mis à jour le 14 décembre 2022 à 15h53] Winter 2022-2023 could well pass without the slightest load shedding. If nothing can be said categorically and if the government has made a point of preparing emergency protocols in the event of power cuts to be planned, the RTE network manager is quite reassuring. Thomas Veyren, executive director of the strategy and prospective division of the group even clearly indicated to the Senate this Wednesday, December 14 that “the worst scenario, the most constrained has been ruled out”.
The electricity consumption of the French is significantly down compared to last year, around 10% between November 10 and December 10, compared to last year. “We certainly have the means to avoid cuts”, considers Thomas Veyren, who specifies that the nuclear installations have found “much more favorable” production capacities.
The map of the Ecowatt platform, a service provided by the electricity transmission network (RTE) which makes it possible to know the level of consumption in France region by region, should remain green until the end of the year. If the forecasts of the energy manager are not as optimistic for the month of January, as every January for ten years, RTE wants to be confident in the means of the network to avoid load shedding. In particular thanks to the rehabilitation of nuclear reactors which were shut down in September. Bruno Le Maire reported on CNews on December 14 that progress in this area was extremely rapid: “We are refurbishing nuclear reactors, as I speak to you there are 41 reactors that are in working order, the goal is to have 45 in January,” he said.
Electrical load shedding is therefore presented as the solution of last resort, and fortunately RTE and the government completely rule out the hypothesis of a generalized blackout. But one question remains: are there areas more at risk of no longer being supplied with electricity? If so why ?
Which departments are affected by power outages and load shedding?
To reduce the tensions on the electricity system, “the national solidarity effort must be made by everyone” judges the management of RTE. A statement which implies that all French departments are likely to be targeted by an electrical load shedding operation. The government warns that 40% of French people – those connected to the same power lines as sensitive establishments – can be spared power cuts, without any guarantee. As for the remaining 60%, they are spread over the entire metropolitan territory with the exception of Corsica, which benefits from its own electricity production linked to Italy.
Are certain departments more at risk of experiencing power outages?
RTE specified that the electrical load shedding and scheduled power cuts will be “distributed” and “smoothed” throughout the territory and will not only concern the departments with the highest tensions on the local electricity network. The government protocol provides for its part that no zone can be targeted twice in a row by a load shedding operation. On the other hand, it is not ruled out that different areas of the same department may be affected by a power cut successively.
If in theory the power cuts should be operated in an equitable way on the territory, in the facts certain French departments considered as “energy peninsulas” are much less supplied in electricity. These peninsulas are places less interconnected to the electricity grid via high voltage lines and do not have their own large means of production. In France, Brittany and Provence-Alpes-Côte-d’Azur are related to energy peninsulas. Tensions could therefore be observed in these departments:
- Alpes-de-Haute-Provence (04)
- Hautes-Alpes (05)
- Alpes-Maritimes (06)
- Bouches-du-Rhone (13)
- Cotes-d’Armor (22)
- Finistere (29)
- Ille-et-Vilaine (35)
- Morbihan (56)
- Var (83)
- Vaucluse (84)
Will there be more power cuts in cities or in the countryside?
The use of possible power cuts raises fears of a difference in treatment between cities and rural areas. The electricity network is actually denser in urban areas, but the fact remains that in the event of a power cut, some households will no longer be supplied with electricity. The only difference might be the phone network. With more antennas available than in rural areas, users could more easily pick up the signal from an antenna still in operation.
A question underlying the opposition between town and country is the use of load shedding in Paris. Large cities, like Paris, Marseille or Lyon, often house hospital complexes and many so-called sensitive sites exempt from power cuts, which has the effect of reducing the potentially load-shedding area. In Paris “only 20% of electricity consumption can be cut”, according to the government.