The ruthless drone war between Russia and Ukraine continues. Monday, December 5, two Russian air bases were targeted by Ukrainian drones. According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, these “Soviet-designed” drones were intercepted by the Russian anti-aircraft defense while targeting the base of Diagilevo, in the Ryazan region, and that of Enguels, in the Saratov region . These strikes are distinguished by the significant distance separating the targeted bases from the Ukrainian border: Enguels is nearly 600 kilometers away and Ryazan about 500 kilometers away.
Three Russian soldiers were killed and four injured in explosions caused by falling debris from intercepted drones, according to the Russian ministry. Two Russian planes were also damaged. In addition, a drone attacked an airfield located in the Russian region of Kursk, on the border with Ukraine, its governor announced on Tuesday. General Dominique Trinquand, former head of the French mission to the UN, deciphers Monday’s double attack.
L’Express: What is the purpose of Ukraine through these strikes carried out by “reaction drones”?
Dominique Trinquand: From a tactical point of view, the first objective corresponds to what has already been done with the Himars and Caesar artillery, namely hitting Russian logistics poles. Russia mainly uses its air force and missiles to attack Ukrainian infrastructure and Ukraine shows that it is also capable of striking. The strategic Russian planes targeted by these strikes on air bases are also capable of carrying a nuclear weapon but also a conventional weapon.
Strategically, this time, Ukraine wants to show that Russia can potentially be a target within its borders and therefore Russian territory is not immune. The message sent by Ukraine is therefore that Russia, and particularly its army, are vulnerable, including on their own territory, near Moscow, since the Diaguilevo base is located only 100 kilometers from the capital. The big difference with Moscow, however, is that kyiv only hits military targets, not civilians.
Until now, Russia made believe that the war was only located in Ukraine and that it was therefore not concerned. The first notch in this assertion was the partial mobilization decreed by Vladimir Putin and which concerns the Russian population. The second is these strikes in Russia, to the chagrin of certain Russian military bloggers, who are very harsh on their command. (Editor’s note: as reported by Institute for the study of warsome Russian servicemen noted on their blogs that Russian military officials had not sufficiently protected the airbases despite knowing that they were clear targets by Ukrainian strikes).
In recent months, several military bases as well as Russian fuel or ammunition depots have been targeted by drone attacks attributed by Moscow to Ukrainian forces. In October, the Crimean Bridge was badly destroyed in an explosion, even though Crimea is considered Russian by Moscow. Previously, at the end of July, a drone attack targeted the headquarters of the Russian Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol, injuring five people.
Can we fear an escalation in the war?
One might think so, but Ukraine does not claim responsibility for these drone strikes. kyiv lets Moscow express itself publicly and the Russians tend to minimize the extent of the damage suffered, which would be minor. In other words, the de-escalation is announced by the Russians themselves, who do not dramatize the situation. The Russians could have blamed the Americans, but they claim that “Soviet-designed” drones were used.
The Ukrainians could in the future repeat these strikes in Russia by drones : once we have shown that we can attack far from our borders and that the Russians do not react too much, why not continue?
Why did kyiv use “Soviet-designed” drones, as Moscow claimed?
I am not completely convinced by this Russian announcement referring to the use of these Soviet drones. These two explosions indeed coincide with the announcement made just before of a new drone within the Ukrainian Armed Forces. In effect, as reported Air and Cosmos, Ukroboronprom officially announced that it successfully tested a suicide drone equipped with a 75 kg payload. I find it strange to make this announcement before the drone attack in Russia…
It is possible, however, that Ukraine used Soviet drones that have been modified. (Editor’s note: as Air and Cosmos note, various tweets speak of a Tu-141 Strizh drone, which dates from the Soviet era and which is used by Moscow and kyiv in Ukraine. It is initially a jet reconnaissance drone that would have been modified with an offensive load). I recall that the Neptune, the missile sent against the Russian ship Moskvawas an old Soviet missile modified by the Ukrainians.
The Ukrainians have shown since the beginning of the war that they have the technological capacity to modify and adapt their systems. kyiv is therefore able to carry out these attacks on its own, without calling on someone else.
In addition, there is information that the terminal guidance of these drones was done by Ukrainian agents infiltrated in Russia. (Editor’s note: as noted by the Institute for the study of war, several Russian bloggers claimed that Ukrainian groups must have launched the attack against the Engels air base from inside Russian territory, while a senior Ukrainian official told the New York Times that the drones had taken off from Ukrainian territory and that at least one of the strikes had been assisted by members of the special forces near the impact.)