Published: Just now
With three weeks until Christmas, SVT meteorologist Nitzan Cohen sees a white Christmas in large parts of Sweden.
– The week before Christmas can potentially become a bit of a snow factory, he says.
But there is an uncertainty factor – it can also rain.
A widespread snow cover may lie over many counties this Christmas, according to meteorologist Nitzan Cohen who ventured a long-range forecast in SVT.
– The chances are increasing for a white Christmas in large parts of the country. But there is an element of uncertainty in all of this. It could be wrong, he tells Aftonbladet.
“Tends to be quite unstable”
A few things to keep in mind as we dive into the forecast – we’re languishing in week 48 right now, Christmas Eve is at the end of week 51. And one important thing to remember:
– When you look at the longer term, you have to be clear-eyed. Weather can come from different directions that I cannot predict, because they are formed in the near future, says Nitzan Cohen.
During weeks 49 and 50, cold air will flow in from the north, according to the meteorologist. Freezing temperatures are on the way and there is the potential for snow flurries. And on the cold air, mild air appears to be coming from the south.
When cold air and mild or warm air meet, it can lead to heavy snowfall. They create a bit of a symbiosis. The cold air cools the mild air, which can carry larger amounts of precipitation. Whoops. So the rain of the mild air has turned into snow.
– When the air masses meet, it usually becomes quite unstable. So the week leading up to Christmas could potentially be a bit of a snow factory. But it can also mean rain, if the mild air comes too close to the southernmost part of Sweden.
So it must not be too mild, because then it will be rain instead of snow. And it must not be too cold, because then there will not be as much precipitation.
– Should there be a lot of snow and a widespread snow cover, it will be a white Christmas in almost the entire country. Then we will have to lie a little on the border on a couple of occasions.
Greenland blockade
The so-called Greenland blockade appears to be weakening during week 51, says Nitzan Cohen. This means that low pressure comes in over southern Europe, and pushes mild air north towards Sweden. As a result, there may be snow over the southern parts of Sweden.
– I think the weakening will happen during week 51. Then the question is, how far north will that mild air come.
The balance between cold weather and temporarily milder air needs to be just right. If it is, even parts of Skåne and the west coast can have a white Christmas, which rarely happens.
– We will definitely get some snow during the cold period. The only question is where and how much. Most of Norrland will definitely be covered in snow and I think that large parts of Svealand will be. The question is how it will be in the southern part of the country.