Former US President Trump announced his candidacy for the 2024 presidential election on November 15 at his home in Mar-a-Lago, Florida. ⓒAP Photo Former U.S. President Donald Trump (76) eventually made his last political bid. He officially announced his candidacy for president on November 15, telling his supporters at his home-cum-resort in Mar-a-Lago, Florida, “I will make America great and glorious again.” After losing to Democratic candidate Joe Biden in the November 2020 presidential election, there were widespread observations that former President Trump, who had been shouting dissatisfaction with the presidential election, would come out again in the next presidential election. This is because he himself has consistently made remarks that make his candidacy a fait accompli. He announced his candidacy for the presidential election early, with the November 2024 presidential election two years away, but the political environment surrounding him is by no means friendly. In the congressional midterm elections held on November 8, the Republican Party’s candidates who disobeyed the presidential election, which he pushed for, failed en masse, and to make matters worse, he was even investigated by a special prosecutor. Three days after he announced his candidacy, his presidential campaign was embroiled in political turmoil from the beginning when Attorney General Merrick Garland appointed a special prosecutor to investigate “the leak of classified documents and suspicion of inciting congressional riots.” Why did former President Trump choose the 2024 presidential election now? He put forward the reason for running “to make America great again”, but few people take it at face value. Most political analysts find the cause in two aspects. First of all, by announcing his candidacy for the presidency early, he was aiming for the effect of overpowering other Republican candidates. Republican presidential candidates currently being discussed include Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin, former Maryland Governor Larry Hogan, former Vice President Mike Pence, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Senator Ted Cruz, and former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley. Among them, Governor Ron DeSantis (44), who won re-election by beating his Democratic counterpart by a margin of more than 19 percentage points in this midterm election, is emerging as an opponent. A graduate of Harvard Law School, he is considered a presidential candidate worthy of replacing Trump in the Republican Party, adding to his re-election career as a three-term U.S. congressman and governor. Trump, who once ardently supported DeSantis, showed a restraint mentality by even calling him the monstrous nickname “DeSanctimonious” when he showed his will to run for president. He mocked him with a contemptuous modifier using the adjective ‘sanctimonious’, which means ‘pretending to be virtuous’. Political analysts cite “judicial risk” as a decisive factor that hastened Trump’s presidential run. Currently, there are four judicial risks facing him. First of all, it is an investigation into classified documents that he leaked to his Florida home without permission when he retired. In August, FBI agents raided his home and seized 11,000 documents, including 100 classified documents, including “Top Secret” documents. . In the legal world, if Trump is prosecuted, it is predicted that the charge of leaking classified documents will be the most likely. Within the Republican Party, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is considered a likely presidential candidate to replace Trump. ⓒAP Photo Trump’s decline after the midterm election Another judicial risk that will affect the political life of former President Trump is the alleged incitement behind the congressional riot that took place on January 6, 2021. He has been under investigation in connection with this case. In addition, Trump is accused of encouraging Georgia to overturn the presidential election results, and his New York-based business, Trump Tower, is under investigation by New York State prosecutors for alleged accounting fraud. Former President Trump denied all charges against him and did not bend his will to run for the presidency, accusing him of a ‘political witch hunt’. The question is what will be the impact on his running status if he is prosecuted in the future or convicted after indictment. Derek Mueller, a professor at the University of Iowa Law School, appeared on CNN and said, “If Trump is prosecuted, he may have trouble raising funds for the presidential election, but that is a political issue, not a legal issue.” “The U.S. Constitution does not restrict a defendant from running for office if convicted of a felony,” he said. In fact, in the 1920 presidential election, Eugene Debs, a socialist candidate, ran while in prison and won more than 900,000 votes. One variable would be if Trump is charged with violating the Espionage Act in relation to the alleged leaking of secrets. In this case, the person found guilty is stripped of office and restricted from running for public office. Trump is in the position that there is no problem because the document was taken out under the prerogative of the president to declassify it during his tenure. As the special prosecutor takes over the matter, there is a possibility that the legal struggle will be prolonged. Despite these judicial risks, can Trump be confirmed as the next Republican presidential candidate? It is supported by strong Republicans, but it is also true that Trump’s decline has been detected since the recent midterm elections. In fact, Florida Governor DeSantis won 43% in the Republican Party’s own poll conducted in Texas, a stronghold of the Republican Party, right after the midterm elections, defeating Trump, who only got 32%. Earlier, in a poll conducted by Yahoo News and YouGov for the next Republican presidential candidate of voters nationwide, the approval rating for DeSantis was 42%, 10 percentage points ahead of Trump. It is also bad news for Trump that influential Republican supporters have begun to leave one by one. Stephen Schwartzman, chairman of Blackstone, the world’s largest private equity fund manager, broke up with Trump shortly after Trump announced his presidential run, saying, “He intends to support the next-generation candidate.” Billionaire entrepreneur Ronald Lauder and multinational hedge fund Citadel chairman Kenneth Griffin are keeping their distance from Trump for similar reasons. It is said that the anti-Trump atmosphere was evident at the annual Republican governors’ meeting held in Florida immediately after the midterm elections. Public opinion is fluid. Even if Republican politicians ‘veto’ former President Trump, the situation may change if pro-Republican voters prefer it. According to a recent poll conducted by NBC News, about 30% of pro-Republican voters said they support Trump more than Republicans. According to an Associated Press survey of 96,000 voters who voted in the midterm elections, a whopping 66% of pro-Republican voters supported Trump. Considering that he won the presidential candidate in the 2016 Republican primary with an approval rating of just over 40%, it is possible to be elected as the next candidate with his current approval rating. Can Trump overcome the judicial risks and challenges of rivals like Governor DeSantis? A narrow and rough road to the 2024 presidential election lay before Trump.
ssn-general
A rival horse comes to mind, but there are four judicial risks
