On November 11, Ukraine managed to carry out a lightning offensive in Kherson and regain control of large parts of the region in the south, which had been under Russian control since last spring. But since then the progress of the war has been unchanged and no major offensive has been carried out by either Ukraine or Russia that has caused the terrain to change hands.
However, the bloodshed has had no interruption, says lieutenant colonel Joakim Paasikivi. On the contrary, the war has become increasingly bloody – and protracted.
This is where the battles take place
Despite success in Kherson, fighting continues between Ukrainian and Russian or Russian-backed forces in several cities, including in Luhansk and the Donbass region. The fighting is most intense, however, in Donetsk, where Russian forces are trying to advance towards Bachmut and Siversk.
– Both sides have likely strengthened their units against Donbass, which is fighting in what can be closely compared to truly terrible, muddy First World War conditions, says Paasikivi.
Great bloodshed on the Russian side
However, it is impossible to say exactly how many have been killed and wounded in these battles, as little independent information reaches us. However, there appear to be more casualties on the Russian side.
– There you seem to be insensitive to your own losses, says Paasikivi.
This is likely because many of the soldiers deployed at the bloodiest front lines are prisoners recruited by the infamous paramilitary group Wagner.
“Hard to know how fragile the Russian army is”
What surprises lieutenant colonel Joakim Paasikivi is that Russia continues to enter with large resources in places where it is difficult to see what the tactical or operational benefit would be.
– It is possible that one element could be that the Wagner Group wants to profile itself in these areas, but it is difficult to see that it would have any real practical significance, he says.
For Ukraine, however, the next goal is a bit clearer. They want to succeed with an offensive in Kharkiv, similar to the one carried out in Kherson, and earlier in Kyiv. The Russians retreated, which was an important turning point in the war.
– If there is a breakthrough there as well, then it could mean that the Russian Donbass front could be threatened, but it is difficult to know how fragile the Russian army is once it is put under severe pressure.