“It was dark, and everyone was asleep when the bombs started falling. I quickly came out to see what was happening: it looked like the Azeris had set fire to the mountains.” When she recounts her night from September 12 to 13, Marinee, a breeder in her sixties in the small Armenian village of Sotk, about ten kilometers from the border with Azerbaijan, struggles to hide her emotion. That evening, her husband, Sargis, was injured in the head and arm by shrapnel. “Every day, I thank God that we got out of it alive, blows the grandmother, whose home still shows the scars of the bombings. But I am terrified at the idea of it starting again. A stone’s throw away, Slavig, 59, had no choice but to move in with his neighbours. A strike pulverized his house, less than five minutes after he fled.
Shortly after midnight, Azerbaijan kicked off a two-day attack on its Armenian neighbor. A lightning offensive of unprecedented intensity since the war between the two countries in 2020. At that time, the conflict had ended in the crushing victory of Baku and its conquest of large portions of Nagorno-Karabakh, a mountainous region populated mainly by Armenians. After forty-four days of fierce fighting and more than 6,500 dead, a precarious ceasefire sponsored by Moscow was signed in November 2020. Already violated many times, it was shattered in mid-September with the Azerbaijani operation.
Dario Ingiusto / L’Express
At its end, the Armenian authorities recorded more than 200 civilian and military deaths. “At least 7,600 people have been displaced, including more than 1,400 children, says Armenian Human Rights Defender Kristine Grigoryan. And we have listed several war crimes.” On social networks, videos show, for example, the corpse of Gayane Abgaryan, an Armenian army volunteer, her body naked and mutilated, a severed finger stuck in her mouth… During these two days of horror, the Armenia has witnessed the nibbling by Baku of some of its territories located in the east of the country. According to Yerevan, more than 150 square kilometers are occupied by the Azerbaijani army. And the exchanges of gunfire, daily at the border, only fuel the fear of greater butchering to come.
“Russia is a dangerously unreliable friend”
“The context of the war in Ukraine made this situation possible, Judge Paruyr Hovhannisyan, Armenian Deputy Foreign Minister. Azerbaijan thought it was the right time to attack, because everyone was busy elsewhere.” The Armenians have indeed requested military aid from Moscow and its Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), which provides for the defense of the territorial integrity of its members in the event of an attack: in vain, as during the war of 2020. At the highest level of the Armenian state, we no longer hide our annoyance. At the CSTO summit in Yerevan on Nov. 23, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian said it was “devastating that Armenia’s CSTO membership could not contain Azerbaijani aggression.”
“Russia is a dangerously unreliable friend, which puts Armenia in a situation as precarious as it is vulnerable, points out Richard Giragosian, director of the think tank Regional Studies Center, whose headquarters is in Yerevan. But it does not cannot get rid of Moscow, insofar as the security of the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh depends on the 2,000 Russian peacekeepers deployed there in 2020.” Sign of his exasperation, Nikol Pashinian refused to sign the CSTO joint statement after the summit: “According to our military treaty, Russia had to act immediately after the aggression of Azerbaijan. But there was no reaction, insists the deputy minister. That begs the question.”
In Sotk, more than 50 houses were totally destroyed by shelling during Azerbaijan’s offensive between September 13 and 15
Paul Véronique / L’Express
To wonder if a weakening of Armenia would not constitute an opportunity for Moscow. “This is the feeling that dominates in Yerevan,” confirms an Armenian diplomatic source. Last February, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko stirred up trouble by declaring that Armenia “could not escape” a political-economic alliance bringing together Russia and Belarus, supposed to lead to a gradual merger. A hypothesis categorically rejected by Armenia. “Our sovereignty and our independence are not negotiable”, protests Paruyr Hovhannisyan.
For Yerevan, the whole challenge is to come to terms with this failing ally, absorbed by its failed invasion of Ukraine, which nevertheless remains essential in the face of the growing appetite of an Azerbaijan three times more populated and rich in hydrocarbons. On paper, the gap in forces between the two countries remains glaring: in 2021, the Armenian defense budget amounted to only 678 million dollars, against 2.6 billion on the Azeri side. Well aware of having the cards in hand, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev is maintaining his pressure. And does not hesitate to threaten Armenia with new “immediate actions”, as during a warmongering speech which marked the spirits, delivered in Shushi, the former capital of Nagorno-Karabakh, the November 8 last.
Baku’s ambitions
Ultimately, Baku seems to be pursuing two objectives: the total takeover of Nagorno-Karabakh and the establishment of a land corridor, known as Zangezour, in southern Armenia. The goal: to obtain direct access to its exclave of Nakhitchevan, bordering Turkey, faithful political and military support of Azerbaijan. “For us, it’s a red line, objects Paruyr Hovhannisyan. We would lose an important part of our territory, while giving up our common border with Iran.” In fact, this land link also arouses the concern of Tehran, historical ally of Yerevan, which sees in it as much a risk of encirclement by Azerbaijan and its Turkish ally as a threat to its trade with Armenia.
Anxious to multiply diplomatic channels, Armenia has strengthened its ties with Westerners in recent months. The European Union has repeatedly brought the Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders to Brussels for talks. The Twenty-Seven also sent a mission of 40 inspectors in mid-October to “monitor the situation” at the border. In Armenia, we want to believe that their presence there will deter, at least temporarily, any attempt to attack Baku. Usually little involved in the region, the United States also denounced in mid-September “the illegal and deadly attacks of Azerbaijan on Armenian territory”, through the voice of the President of the House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, at the outcome of a three-day visit to Armenia.
“Armenia is seeking to compensate for its excessive dependence on Russia, emphasizes Richard Giragosian. This creates an opportunity for Western engagement, with a view to obtaining a new strategic balance in the region.” Initiatives seen with a dim view by Moscow, which fears that Westerners will interfere in a region that has always been considered its backyard. At the end of October, Vladimir Putin had invited the two belligerents to Sochi for discussions. “This meeting was the Russian response to Western efforts, but it was not very successful,” said an Armenian diplomatic source. If at the end of the meeting Yerevan and Baku had pledged “not to use force”, new skirmishes had broken out a few days later.
Far from this diplomatic maelstrom, in the Armenian population, we hope for a return to calm. In a rehabilitation center for soldiers in Yerevan, Hrayr tries to adjust to his new life. Wounded in Djermouk in mid-September, the 25-year-old young man enlisted in the army in 2020 lost his left leg in the bombings. “We would like peace to be restored, slips the former florist. But that would require the Azeris to leave our territory.” For an Armenia coveted on all sides by its powerful neighbours, the task promises to be difficult.