Ukraine is conducting a military operation on Cape Kinburn, confirmed the spokesperson of the country’s armed forces on Tuesday.
Cape Kinburn is strategically important. The more than 30 kilometer long promontory is located east of the city of Kherson and south of Mykolayiv. The cape has been under Russian control, and the Russian troops have been able to fire on the Ukrainian territories on the Black Sea coast with the artillery stationed on the cape.
The spokesman for the armed forces did not say more about the nature of the operation. However, he asked that the media not try to find out the details of the operation. In the same way, silence was expected from the media when Ukraine was preparing to expel the Russian troops west of the Dnieper.
No information has been received, but experts in the media have still considered what benefits a potential takeover of Kinburn would have for Ukraine.
Preventing Russian artillery fire enables Ukraine to utilize the port of Mykolaiv and the Bug River. In some reviews (you switch to another service) it has also been suggested that by increasing pressure on Russian forces from the direction of Kinburn, Ukraine could perhaps gain an advantage for a wider offensive in the direction of Crimea.
Expert: Kinburn is a tough place
Strategy teacher at the National Defense University Antti Pihlajamaa does not believe that Ukraine could easily use the narrow and lake-broken Kinburn as a starting point for a wider offensive, even if it were to gain control of the cape.
– I believe that things are happening there, but not in such a visible way that either side would make strong progress.
He reminds that it would not be easy to get a sufficiently strong and offensive force to the area by sea. In addition, the troops there would be very exposed to Russian artillery fire with little opportunity to dodge.
The east bank of the Dnieper is fired upon
Since last week, information has been received that Ukraine has been violently firing artillery at Russian positions on the east bank of the Dnieper, for example, near the town of Kahovka.
According to Pihlajamaa, on the one hand, Ukraine wants to cause losses to the Russians, on the other hand, to evict them within artillery range from the river, so that Russian artillery cannot disturb life in the area west of the Dnieper that Ukraine has recaptured. Ukraine has fired at targets other than Kahovka, says Pihlajamaa.
Pihlajamaa considers it important that Ukraine retains the initiative in the war, as Russia seeks to strengthen its worn-out forces during the pause in the fighting.
– I interpret it so that Ukraine at this stage is creating the conditions for future operations; distracts and wears down the Russians with fire, scouts and plans future operations.
In any case, Russia seems to be preparing for Ukraine’s attempt to attack across the Dnieper, possibly in the direction of Crimea. According to Pihlajamaa, a multi-tiered defense system is being built on the east side of the Dnieper to protect Crimea.
If Ukraine wants to launch an attack on Crimea, if possible, it would be better to do it already during the winter than later in the spring, Pihlajamaa thinks. For the time being, the Crimean bridge, which is important for the maintenance of the Russians, has been cut, and the maintenance of the troops in the direction of Kherson is not easy either through Mariupol and Berdjansk.
According to Ukrainian information, the city of Armyansk, located on the “neck” of the Crimean peninsula and central to transportation, has come under the threat of Ukraine’s long-range Himars rockets. For this reason, Russia has to use a smaller eastern road that passes through the islands, he says Ukrinform website (you are moving to another service). The information cannot be confirmed from unbiased sources.
“War turned into an end in itself”
On the eastern front of the war, in the Donetsk region, the war seems to continue bloody without the frontline situation changing in any direction. Russia is trying to advance gradually, especially in the direction of the city of Bahmut.
According to Pihilajamaa, there is no operative solution in sight. With these prospects, Russia will not be able to beat the Ukrainians, because the front is long and straight, so the blockade will not succeed.
Russia continues its attack because there are no better ideas for winning the war. Possibly, it also aims to consume and bind Ukrainian forces, so that they would not be able to attack, for example, Crimea, Pihlajamaa guesses.
– It seems that the war has become an end in itself for Russia. It is not achieving its political goals, says Pihlajamaa.
Ukraine shows no signs of budging. Still, Russia is not about to end the war either.
– Withdrawal does not seem to fit into the Russian self-understanding, but the continuation of the war is necessary from Russia’s point of view.
Focus on destroying Ukrainian infrastructure
Although the war still causes enormous human suffering and material destruction even on the front lines, according to Pihlajamaa, Russia has shifted the focus of the war to the destruction of Ukraine’s infrastructure.
– I don’t know to what extent Russia believes that it will reach a final solution, or whether it is a matter of playing for time or a strategy chosen for lack of a better one.
Russia has caused enormous damage to Ukraine’s energy supply and other infrastructure.
– Is it enough to bring about a solution in the war? At the moment, it seems quite far away, Pihlajamaa states.