According to a researcher of intelligence history, suspicions of spies in the Nordic countries have largely been dealt with quietly through diplomatic channels, because Russia’s information acquisition has also been based on acting under diplomatic cover.
Two suspicions of espionage have been made public in Sweden in a short period of time.
Today, the trial against two brothers accused of espionage begins in the country. The other day, the Swedish security police Säpo spectacularly arrested two suspected spies. According to the Swedish media, it is a Russian couple.
The visible arrest clearly sent a political message, says the intelligence history researcher who visited in the morning Mikko Porvali from the University of Jyväskylä.
– There would be no need to announce anything about such an arrest and it would not have to be done so spectacularly. It was chosen to send a signal to the east, he says.
The cases that emerged in Sweden have raised the question of whether espionage itself has increased, or whether it is now easier to catch. Porvali estimates that although espionage has certainly increased with the changed world political situation, the cases that have now become public are not about that, but about the routine activities of the Russian intelligence services.
It is interesting that suspicions of espionage have been made public in Sweden.
– In Nordic culture, these have largely been handled quietly through diplomatic channels through the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, because Russia’s information acquisition has also been based on acting under diplomatic cover for a long time, Porvali explains.
– When one’s own citizens get involved in these matters, it practically inevitably leads to a criminal process and prosecution.
Spies are revealed through leaks and defectors
According to Porval, a spy can nest in an organization in two ways. He can be a spy when he joins the organization, or he can be recruited as such when he is already on the payroll of an organization.
Spies are prevented from entering organizations by conducting background checks in connection with recruitment. In Finland, we talk about security clearances.
However, if the person gets through the investigation or is recruited as a spy only later, there is historically only one way for him to be exposed, according to Porvali.
– And that’s another spy.
A person can be recruited from the country that sends the spy to reveal who are spies in the target country. Another option is that a person who exposes other spies defect from the sending state.
Porval has no information about the brothers’ espionage suspicion being processed in Sweden, but he commented on the case from the point of view of an investigator.
He estimates that if Sweden’s spy investigation has already started years ago, it has been timed pretty much at the same time as when, for example, it was revealed in Estonia Deniss Metsavatsi case. Metsavats was convicted together with his father for aggravated espionage in Estonia.
– The fact that from a certain point forward, spies in Western countries begin to be revealed at a rapid pace could indicate that some information has been received from within Russian intelligence, says Porvali.
– Either it has leaked, or someone has defected from there.