In January, the risks of targeted power cuts are heightened. This was announced in turn by the network manager TEN and the President of the Energy Regulation Commission, Emmanuelle Wargon. “We thought that the risks would start in November or December. Now, we are really reassured for these two months. a form of concern or vigilance for January” declared the ex-minister on France Info, this Saturday, November 19. In January, according to forecasts published Friday by the operator of the electricity network RTE, EDF should be able to supply 40 gigawatts (GW) – or 65% of the installed nuclear capacity – instead of the 55 GW initially announced in September. Usually, at this time of the year, “we are rather around 50 or even, at most, 60 GW. However, with 40 GW, we do not have much room for maneuver”, confirmed Emmanuelle Wargon.
There “will be no blackout”, also assured the head of the Energy Regulatory Commission. “The system that jumps, it won’t happen […]. The worst that can happen are targeted, decided cuts that rotate from one city to another,” she added. In this uncertain context, the government is betting on “two crucial points to secure passage of winter” and avoid these targeted cuts: “energy sobriety efforts” and “European energy solidarity”, particularly with our German neighbours. However, even with the deployment of these two levers, “France remains in uncertainty as to its ability to produce electricity, but also to receive it from neighboring countries”, explains to L’Express Nicolas Goldberg, senior energy manager at Colombus consulting. “It is difficult to affirm or d ‘to invalidate a number of things with certainty knowing that we have no room for maneuver and that we are subject to various hazards, including the weather or delays in distribution, “he says. D as EDF’s forecasts on the return to service of its shutdown reactors depend There are also many factors, including strikes (as was the case in October).
Effective “energy sobriety efforts”?
The French must show energy sobriety, and in particular limit their heating to 19°C. This is the maxim that members of the government have been repeating over and over since the end of the summer. But are citizens paying attention to the instructions of the executive?
According to the grid operator, electricity consumption at normal temperature (the calculation of which was amended to reflect weather conditions) appears clearly lower than in previous years. And this should continue during the winter. “Compared to the 2014-2019 average (reference prior to the health crisis), the drop in consumption reached 5 to 7% over the period extending from the beginning of October to mid-November”, indicates TEN in its latest analysis of the outlook for the electricity system for the fall and winter of 2022-2023, published on November 14.
However, if this decrease is not the result of meteorological effects, it would be more linked to a price effect than to real sobriety efforts on the part of the French. “There is above all a price effect for certain manufacturers and co-owners who are seeing their bills increase, comments Thierry Bros, energy expert and professor at Sciences Po Paris. In fact, they are starting to consume less energy.” An observation shared by Nicolas Goldberg. “Those who are exposed to the price increase are reducing their consumption, which translates into production stoppages. Duralex closed its production at the beginning of November, Arc too”, he underlines. And to add: “It is difficult to know if the call for sobriety will work, especially since the government’s sobriety plan is half based on energy savings that come from limiting heating. It will take watch, when it’s really cold, typically in January, if the heating stays at 19°C”.
Another mechanism put forward both by the executive and by RTE in the event of tension: theEcowatt alert. This is a tool that sends notifications about the status of the network to its subscribers. Nearly one hundred large French companies in the housing, transport and media sectors, but also in heavy industry, agribusiness and mass distribution, have joined the scheme. They undertake to relay Ecowatt’s warning signals and to reduce their own consumption in the event of tensions on the electricity network this winter. But Nicolas Goldberg wonders: “How will the general public react to these alerts? The first, we can imagine that everyone will follow, but if we have five alerts, it’s less certain.”
A “possible European energy solidarity”?
In addition, according to the government, a Franco-German agreement should be signed next week to “secure electricity import capacities” in France. “The government is working at European level to ensure that neighboring Member States and Germany in particular play the game of energy solidarity by allowing electricity to be exported to France at maximum capacity”, indicated the Ministry of Energy Transition, Friday. This agreement should make it possible to “maximise” Germany’s electricity export capacities to France. In the opposite direction, Paris has already been sending gas to its neighbor since mid-October, to help it overcome the drying up of Russian gas flows. French Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne will also visit Germany on November 25. She is due to meet Chancellor Olaf Schol there: a good opportunity to “monitor joint commitments in a European framework, particularly in terms of energy cooperation”, according to Matignon.
“This agreement with Germany remains rather vague”, points out Thierry Bros. According to him, “if there is a peak in consumption both in Germany and in France, then the production of electricity will remain outside the Rhine”. Conversely, for Nicolas Goldberg, “a drop in exports from Germany linked to peaks in synchronous consumption is unlikely, Germany heating itself more with gas than with electricity, unlike the France”. This solidarity plan would then be more of an agreement in principle than a real distribution mechanism. And for good reason: “In the European market, interconnections act whatever happens and are made to ensure the supply of electricity to areas, regardless of borders”, adds Nicolas Goldberg. On the other hand, the specialist points to a capacity limitation of these interconnections. “Germany and other countries will not be able to export more electricity than the size of the pipe has capacity,” he said.
This is not the first time that France has faced an increased risk of targeted power cuts. Already, last winter (2021-2022), the Minister for the Ecological Transition at the time, Barbara Pompili, had alerted to possible risks, which were ultimately avoided. However, it “is particularly high this year, as it has never been,” concludes Nicolas Goldberg. France is advancing somewhat blindly. In the event of a cut, all regions would be affected, even if Ile-de-France would be affected to a lesser extent because of the high number of critical infrastructures.