Volodymyr Zelensky continues to point to Moscow’s responsibility for the explosions in Poland, contradicting Western analyses. The Ukrainian president, however, nuances his speech to remain in the graces of the West.
Who owns the missiles that exploded in Poland on the evening of Tuesday, November 15, 2022? In kyiv or in Moscow? The question is still debated, at least Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky continues to discuss the result of the first analyzes which suggest that the machine is a “Ukrainian anti-aircraft defense system missile” according to NATO, a position shared by Poland and its President, Andrzej Duda. The missile was not intentionally aimed at Poland but landed in the village of Przewodów after countering a Russian air attack still according to American and Polish analyses. Thursday, November 17, the government of kyiv published a press release in which it maintains that the missile found in Poland is of Russian origin even if it qualifies its speech: “I do not know what happened. We “We don’t know for sure. The world doesn’t know. But I’m sure it was a Russian missile, I’m sure we fired from air defense systems.” If the Head of State seeks to clear himself and have Russia accused by the international community, NATO has itself recognized responsibility in Moscow despite the Ukrainian origin of the missile. “Russia bears the ultimate responsibility” for the tragedy, indicated the American Secretary of State Anthony Blinken on November 17.
It became essential for the Ukrainian president to soften his speech but his stubbornness in accusing Russia on all counts could have put him in a delicate position vis-à-vis the international community. Which asked for the resumption of negotiations and exerted pressure on both kyiv and Moscow to take part in the discussions. Before the G20 organized in mid-November in Bali Volodymyr Zelensky defended his position by assuring that Ukraine is ready to negotiate but posed 10 conditions for the holding of the discussions, requirements which provide guarantees against “nuclear dangers” and “starvation” or the withdrawal of Russian troops from all occupied territories, among others, which block trade with Moscow. This reminder of kyiv’s openness to negotiations is also, for the Head of State, the means of retaining the military support of the West.
A missile explosion and two dead in Poland
Two explosive projectiles fell in Poland, in Przewodów, a town near the Polish border with Ukraine, on the evening of Tuesday, November 15, 2022. The missiles fell on civilian buildings and caused the death of two people according to the Polish authorities. These explosions in the European country and a member of NATO have raised fears of the crossing of a new stage in the war led by Russia in Ukraine. The United States and Poland immediately commissioned experts to analyze the situation and determine the origin of the missile. At the same time, to deal with any eventuality, Poland has summoned the member countries of NATO in the name of Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty, which allows for an emergency meeting if “territorial integrity, political independence or security of one of the parties [est] threatened”.
What are the consequences of the explosions in Poland?
The explosions of two missiles in Poland will not be the triggering event for the West’s entry into the war against Russia. According to the results of the first analyzes indicate that it is “highly probable” that the shooting was an accident caused “by a missile from the Ukrainian anti-aircraft defense system” and rule out the hypothesis of a deliberate attack by Russia. No military response from NATO, permitted by Article 5 of the Treaty in the name of collective defence, is planned. The Alliance nevertheless recalled that the fault of this shooting remains attributable to Russia which “continues its illegal war against Ukraine”. British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak also targeted Russia: “None of this would have happened without Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, this is the cruel and relentless reality of Putin’s war “.
Russia has, in the hours following the explosions, denied being at the origin of the shooting and welcomed the “restraint” of the American authorities. Moscow has publicly stated that the projectile was fired from a Ukrainian army S-300 defense system. For its part, Ukraine pointed to “terrorist Russia” contradicting American information and claimed to have evidence of Russian responsibility and requested “immediate access” to the site of the impact in Poland to carry out the investigation. .