If the missile doesn’t hit its target, it self-destructs in the air. According to the director of the anti-aircraft museum, it is possible that the hole was caused by the debris of a missile that fell from the sky.
Meeri Niinistö,
Eetu Pietarinen,
Jyrki Hara
According to current information, the missile that fell in Poland on Tuesday evening is probably a Russian-made S-300 anti-aircraft missile launched by the Ukrainian air defense. This is what the president of Poland has assessed, for exampleAndrzej Duda and NATO Secretary GeneralJens Stoltenberg.
Fears of an escalation of the war because of the incident were dispelled.
– This does not necessarily change the course of the war or the continuation of the war. The President of Poland (Andrzej) Duda stated very early on that this is an isolated case. Maybe it boils down to that, the former commander of the Defense Forces, General Jarmo Lindberg states.
The longest the S-300 can fly is about 200 kilometers. According to experts, the S-300 missile could not have been launched from Russia, because Russia is several hundreds of kilometers away from the village of Przewodów.
There are different types of missiles, but they are all steerable. The destination of the projectiles is determined when launched, but the missiles are guided, explains the director of the Air Defense Museum, lieutenant colonel Esa Kelloniemi.
According to Kelloniemi, based on the photos obtained from the scene, it seems that the missile did not explode on the ground, but that the hole in the ground was made by debris flying from the missile.
The missile weighs about one and a half thousand kilograms. If the missile does not hit its target, it self-destructs in the upper air. However, as a result of the destruction, pieces of the missile fly to the ground and can cause destruction, Kelloniemi says.
– The explosive charge of the S-300 missile is about 180 kilograms, it is a very powerful explosive. In the photo, the tires of the vehicle were intact, the pile of boards had only fallen apart. If 180 kilos explodes, the damage will be visible, for example, as burn marks, for example the car’s tires would have been burnt, Kelloniemi says.
– From the picture, I concluded that a scrap had just fallen into it, which made a hole.
It could be a technical fault
The missile was most obviously part of Ukraine’s defense response to Russia’s large cruise missile attack, says General Lindberg. It is still difficult to assess the reason for the missile’s deviation.
– Either it had a technical fault or it hit a Russian target and as a result uncontrollably changed its flight path, he says.
Military expert, major evp Marko Enlund also believes that it may be a technical fault. Enlund says it is possible that Ukraine has intercepted a Russian plane or missile, and the missile has strayed to the wrong side.
According to Enlund, it would appear that the missile has exploded specifically on the ground.
– If we are talking about an anti-aircraft missile, it has been used to repel a flying object. There was probably some technical error. It has not hit or has started following the target in the wrong direction.
Kelloniemi says that if the direction of the target that was intercepted by Ukraine was in the direction of the Polish border, and it was intercepted at high altitude near the border, parts of the Ukrainian S-300 missile could have flown to the Polish side.
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