As he prepares to announce his candidacy for the 2024 US presidential election, can Donald Trump be re-elected? The road seems strewn with pitfalls.
The “big announcement” is imminent. Unless the situation turns around, Donald Trump will declare himself a candidate for the American presidential election of 2024 this Wednesday, October 16, 2022, in the middle of the night French time. From his home in Mar-a-Lago, Florida, the former president of the United States should officially start the race for the White House, he who has never recognized the victory of his successor, Democrat Joe Biden. . Member of the Republican Party (right, conservatives), the billionaire will first have to pass the stage of the nomination by the “Grand Old Party”. An internal race that could already curb his ambitions of a return to Washington. The road to the Oval Office is not so clear.
The midterms, a pebble in the shoe
Donald Trump no longer seems to be unanimous and to once again arouse the enthusiasm that his candidacy experienced in 2016, then in 2020. The extremist fringe of the party he represents appears to be a foil for the majority of the members of the Republican Party , although he retains a solid base of around 30% of the electorate committed to his cause. The constant talk about the “stolen” 2020 election, the attack on the Capitol in January 2021, his legal affairs and, lately, the defeats of the candidates he dubbed in the midterms seem to be leading to a decline in his popularity rating. Only 40% of Americans have a favorable opinion of him, compared to nearly 44% for Joe Biden. And internally, Republican sympathizers seem to favor another name for the presidential election, that of Ron de Santis, Governor of Florida.
Within the Republican Party, the red carpet is far from being rolled out for Donald Trump. The septuagenarian does not hold any elected office, either in the country or within his political family. His ambition to be a candidate in 2024 tenses in the mysteries of the “GOP”. And this, publicly, especially since no “red wave” (of the color of the Republican Party) swept over the United States at the end of the midterms. “This is the third election that Donald Trump has cost us the election,” Republican Maryland Governor Larry Hogan blasted on CNN Sunday, Nov. 13, adding, “It should have been a huge red wave. It should have been one of the biggest red waves we’ve ever had.”
Same story with Chris Christie, ex-supporter of Trump and former governor of New Jersey. “We lost in 2018. We lost in 2020. We lost in 2021 in Georgia. And now in 2022 we’re going to lose governorships, we’re not going to win the number of seats in the House that we thought and we won’t win the Senate despite a president who has a 40% approval rating,” he lashed out atAssociated Press November 10. “There is only one person to blame for this and that is Donald Trump.”
An unfavorable demographic evolution?
Will the real estate magnate be sidelined? “Donald Trump is totally demonetized. He is no longer able today to create sufficient momentum. He still has a base, fans capable of going wild on social networks, but besides that, he is getting old and, above all, while voters are waiting for solutions on inflation, on the energy crisis, on wages, he offers nothing”, comments Jean-Éric Branaa, lecturer at the University of Paris-II and author of Geopolitics of the United States, with France 24. His age also appears to be a handicap. He is so quick to criticize Joe Biden and his 79 years will be 78 in 2024.
In addition, the evolution of American demography could be a major obstacle to a re-election of Donald Trump. “There is a demographic reality that is not favorable to Republican candidates. In the United States, cultural minorities (Latin Americans, African Americans, etc.) tend to vote for the Democratic Party. strong growth compared to the white population. However, the classic Republican voter is the white man aged 40. They are destined to have less and less place in the demographic importance of the country, while the Afro classes could become the majority in the years to come”, analysis with Internet user Marin Fortin-Bouthot, researcher and coordinator of the Observatory on the United States of the Raoul-Dandurand Chair in Montreal (Canada). After being the 4th post-World War II president not to be re-elected, will Donald Trump fail again in his presidential quest?