It’s a hands-down victory, without possible dispute. Josh Shapiro, the Democratic candidate for governor in Pennsylvania, crushed his rival by 14 points in the midterm general election (midterms) on November 8. “Still, the Republicans had a good chance of winning initially,” said Christopher Borick, a professor at Muhlenberg College. Especially since the president’s popularity rating is mediocre, weighed down in particular by inflation. Since the 1960s, there has always been an alternation in Pennsylvania: a Democratic governor is replaced by a Republican. In this “pivotal state” (swing state), Donald Trump won with 44,000 votes in advance in 2016 and Joe Biden with 80,000 in 2020. But in 2022, it’s different.
“The lesson of this defeat is that the choice of candidates is important in a competitive environment, continues Professor Borick. The Republicans bet on bad horses and lost a good opportunity for victory.” The fault lies with Donald Trump. The ex-president has supported extremist candidates who often drag pots and constantly hammer that Joe Biden won the 2020 presidential election by trickery.
Doug Mastriano, beaten by Josh Shapiro, is the perfect example of these excesses. A former Army colonel, this obscure Pennsylvania congressional senator was one of the leaders, during the pandemic, of the opposition against the “tyranny” of confinement. He carved out a following among conservatives by leading the effort to change the outcome of the 2020 election in his state in favor of Donald Trump. He also, on January 6, 2021, chartered buses of activists to Washington, where they participated in the Capitol insurrection. But without entering it, he assures.
“Mastriano’s positions were too radical”
Donald Trump therefore gave him his support. A defender of Christian nationalism, Mastriano hinted that he was hostile to the separation of Church and State, and, unsurprisingly, declared himself against abortion, including in cases of rape or of incest, even if the life of the mother is in danger. Finally, he is close to far-right social networks that flirt with anti-Semitism.
Practicing Jew, Josh Shapiro, he played on the contrast. This 50-year-old, well known in political circles for more than twenty years, started out as a local elected official, then county official and finally Attorney General of Pennsylvania. He is reputed to be moderate, pragmatic, and has promised to fight against any extremist wishing to limit access to voting, abortion or opposed to gay marriage. “The Democrats have chosen a candidate of excellent quality, very disciplined, who has campaigning and fundraising experience, while Mastriano has failed to expand his base and raise funding, says Professor Borick. The positions of the Republican Trumpist were too radical for the voters.”
Like other Democrats in several states, Josh Shapiro has adopted a controversial and rather risky strategy. He invested thousands of dollars in TV ads during the Republican primaries to attack the conservatism of Mastriano, who was much more right-wing than his rivals in the Republican Party. By shining the spotlight on him, he hoped that the base of the Trumpist party would elect him. The math was simple: Mastriano would be easier to beat, he thought, than a moderate candidate. It paid off. It must be said that the Republican made no effort to refocus and refused to speak to the media, preferring to focus on far-right social networks.
And he is not the only Trumpist to have been rolled. In Pennsylvania, Senate candidate Mehmet Öz also lost, which reportedly infuriated Donald Trump. Republicans expected to ride on Biden’s unpopularity, high inflation and advantageous electoral redistricting in several states. “Still, the results are disappointing. The candidates supported by Trump were not up to the job,” said Sarah Matthews, the deputy spokeswoman for the White House under Trump, on CNN. His conclusion: the ex-president “should therefore not be the Republican candidate in 2024”.