U.S. President Joe Biden (center) attends a campaign in support of the Democratic Party at Bowie State University in Maryland on Nov. ⓒEPA The US’s ruling Democratic Party avoided the worst situation of ‘defeat’ in the midterm elections on November 8. However, if the majority of the House of Representatives passes to the Republican Party, it is certain that President Joe Biden’s political power will decline that much over the next two years. In the midterm elections, 35 out of 100 U.S. Senators, 435 members of the House of Representatives, and 36 out of 50 governors will be elected. It is an intermediate evaluation of President Joe Biden’s state affairs ahead of the November 2024 presidential election. Initially, most election analysts predicted that Democrats would give up majority seats to Republicans in both the House and Senate due to inflation, the highest level in 40 years, and negative evaluations (57%) of President Biden’s performance. In the House, most election experts expect Republicans to win at least 237 seats and up to 252 seats. In other words, the dominant observation was that the red color representing the Republican Party would become a ‘red tsunami’ (republican victory) that would color the entire United States. As a result of opening the ballot box, the Republican Party’s prediction of a ‘big win’ was wrong. Why? First of all, it is analyzed that there were many female voters in pro-Republican states due to one of the biggest issues in this election, the right to abortion. In fact, the Republican party’s triumph began to waver in June this year, when the Supreme Court overturned the 50-year-old ruling to recognize the right to abortion, causing women, especially white female voters, who were traditionally pro-Republicans, to leave. In this election, Republican candidates were hit hard as they voted against abortion bans in Kansas and North Carolina, as well as in Kentucky, a traditional Republican garden. The Washington Post reported that “voters in pro-republican areas have mashed up a series of bills banning abortions.” According to the exit poll results, the most important variable that stimulated voters’ votes was the Supreme Court’s decision to abolish the right to abortion after inflation. While the Democrats lost their votes due to inflation, the Republicans also lost a significant amount of votes on the issue of abortion rights. Another factor in the reduction of marks is the ‘check mentality’. It is analyzed that a significant number of Republican lawmakers were far-right inclined enough to deny the results of the last presidential election, and center voters expressed their reluctance to do so. If Republicans take control of the House, a massive offensive against the Biden administration is obvious. When a new Congress opens in January next year, the Republican Party is expected to disband the Democratic Party-led ‘1/6 Capitol Riot Investigation Committee’. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, who is likely to be the next House Speaker, has rejected a fact-finding committee request to testify about conversations he had with President Donald Trump on the day of the riot, and said he would review a party-level investigation of Republicans who joined the committee. come. On January 6, last year, hundreds of former Trump supporters broke into the Capitol. It was the day of the joint meeting of the House and Senate to certify the Democratic nominee Biden. At that time, members of the House and Senate were evacuated, and five people were killed, including one policeman, on the same day alone. More than 700 people have been tried in the case so far, and an impeachment bill has been proposed in the House of Representatives for Trump, who spoke to supporters just before the riot. To investigate the riots at the time, the House of Representatives formed the ‘1/6 Capitol Riot Facts Investigation Committee’ in September last year, led by the Democratic Party, which is the majority party. In October, he unanimously passed a bill that summoned former President Trump to hear testimony about his dissatisfaction with the election and the intrusion of mobs into the Capitol. Former President Trump held a party with supporters at his home, the Mar-a-Lago resort in Palm Beach, Florida, on November 8 (local time). ⓒAP Photo Whether Trump will run for president in earnest When the House takes over, Republicans have foretold a congressional investigation into President Biden and some ministers. It is expected that Congress will investigate the ‘withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan’, which President Biden decided in August of last year. Also in August, the FBI seized and searched a Florida resort where Trump resided after he was charged with taking and storing confidential White House documents at his home while in office. It will be investigated as ‘political oppression’. At the time, Trump called it “an attack by the radical left Democrats who desperately want to stop me from running for president in 2024.” Republicans are seeking to impeach Attorney General Merrick Garland for authorizing the search and seizure. Not only that. Biden’s second son, Hunter Biden, will be questioned over allegations of corruption. Hunter Biden, a 52-year-old lawyer and lobbyist, has worked in China and Ukraine. Republicans plan to scrutinize allegations that Hunter Biden received money while serving as an executive at an energy company in Ukraine. The results of the midterm elections set a setback for various government tasks that Biden has been ambitious for since taking office. It is certain that the legislation related to the climate crisis, which Biden has been ambitious for since taking office, will also be put to the test. In particular, Republicans are expected to push for massive cuts as they pointed to the Biden administration’s massive fiscal spending as the main cause of inflation. To that end, Republicans see the federal debt ceiling, which is expected to hit the limit early next year, as a golden card to put pressure on the Biden administration. In December of last year, the US Congress narrowly escaped the national default (default) by passing a bill raising the federal debt limit from the current $28.9 trillion to $31.4 trillion. Republicans plan to put a brake on the Biden administration’s attempt to extend the debt ceiling early next year and use it as leverage to pressure spending on social security, health care and clean energy investments. In the face of the Republican House offensive, the Biden administration has no other choice but to lean on the Senate. In the Senate, Democrats and Republicans shared 50-50 seats. Vice President Kamala Harris, a member of the Democratic Party, was ex officio chairman of the Senate and was able to exercise the ‘casting boat’. If the Democrats unexpectedly won in Pennsylvania and added one more seat, and if they win in Arizona and Nevada, they will retain their majority position as they do now (the Senate has different methods of counting runoffs and mail-in ballots in each state until we know the exact result) It will probably take about a month). If the Democrats win the Senate majority, the Senate will serve as a crutch against the Republican House of Representatives. This election is a weather vane for the 2024 presidential election. It is expected to have a significant impact on the next steps of Biden and Trump. Initially, there was a lot of negative public opinion about Biden’s re-election challenge. But as the Democrats escaped a crushing defeat, the chances of Biden running for re-election in 2024 increased. Trump is in a similar situation. In the midterm elections, candidates pushed by former President Trump did not perform as well as expected. Nevertheless, Trump rallied a strong supporter by advocating the political slogan of ‘Make America Great Again (MAGA)’. After the midterm elections, it is predicted that the presidential campaign will begin in earnest.
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‘Abortion rights’ revolt votes to prevent Republican victory
